《大行報告》野村下調國壽(02628.HK)目標價至14.57元 上季純利及新業務價值遜預期
野村發表研究報告指,中國人壽(02628.HK)上季純利及新業務價值遜預期;由於總投資回報疲弱,首九個月純利按年下跌36%,較預期低出5%,單計第三季純利則下跌24%。首三季新業務價值(NBV)按年跌15%,低於該行預期約2%,意味上半年及第三季NBV分別按年跌14%及20%。
報告指出,國壽首三季NBV增長領先同業,但9月份錄得約15%按年跌幅,鑑於期內首年保費(FYP)增長6%至1,710億元人民幣,預期NBV下降主要由於疫情影響下公司業務組合轉變,令整體NBV利潤率下降。
野村稱,國壽首三季年化股本回報率(RoE)按年跌5.1個百分點至9%,野村指出,公司資本實力出現轉弱情況,但目前仍然較維持較強勁;綜合償債能力及核心償付能力,但仍均遠高於監管要求水平。
野村將國壽2022年淨利潤預測下調8%,料將按年跌33%,同時預計全年NBV將按年跌15%,維持「買入」評級,但下調估值基礎,由原先預測明年市賬率0.86倍降至0.76倍,目標價相應由16.41元下調至14.57元。
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