一文綜合券商於中海油(00883.HK)公佈季績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
中海油(00883.HK)今早股價偏好,最新報9.88元升0.8%。瑞信指中海油今年盈利已大致達標,按六成派息率估算,中海油19%的預測股息率對波動市況下尋求安全的投資者具吸引力,該行維持對中海油今年至2024年每股盈利預測,亦維持對中海油13.5元目標價及「跑贏大市」評級不變。該行股價目標爲中海油淨資產折讓20%,反映美國對投資中國企業的制裁。
中海油昨(27日)收市後公佈第三季業績。季度淨利潤按年升89%至368.8億元人民幣,每股基本盈利0.77元人民幣,營業收入按年升71%至1,087.9億元人民幣。首三季淨利潤按年升1.06倍至1,087.68億元人民幣,營業收入按年升79%至3,111.45億元人民幣。首三季平均實現油價按年升56%至每桶101.40美元,平均實現氣價按年升20%至每千立方英尺8.14美元,公司桶油主要成本爲30.29美元。
公司第三季實現總淨產量按年升9%至1.57億桶油當量,中國淨產量升7%至1.07億桶油當量,海外淨產量升14%至4,990萬桶油當量。首三季淨產量按年升9%至4.62億桶油當量,創歷史同期新高。公司表示,另有6個項目成功投產,其他新項目均在穩步推進。
【季績呈強勁 全年目標可達】
摩根大通指,中海油管理層在電話會議中表示,預期今年產量超出今年指引上限的每日170萬桶油當量,並認爲2024年每日產量200萬桶油當量的目標或會上調,且重申今年資本開支指引達1,000億元人民幣,意味第四季開支按季升11%,且不排除未來增加資本開支提升產量增長。該行上調中海油2025年產量預測至每日210萬桶油黨量,意味2025年前產量年複合增長率8%,並上調2023至2025年資本開支預測25%至每年1,250億元人民幣,2022至2025年每股盈利預測平均上調4%,基於人民幣幣匯價因素,下調對中海油目標價由15元降至12.1元,維持「增持」評級。
花旗指,中海油季內油氣產量按年升9%至1.57億桶油當量,首9個月達4.62億桶油當量,有機會超出公司全年生產指標6.1億桶油當量。基於今年產量超預期,該行預期中海油明年1月策略日上調明年生產指標。該行亦指,公司管理層稱今年資本開始或達指標上限,即1,000億元人民幣。配合二十大會議提出的能源安全策略,中海油正就明年勘探及生產作規劃,管理層料中期資本開支呈上升趨勢,有信心2025年達每日200萬桶油當量的生產目標,相信中海油服(02883.HK)將爲其勘探增加的主要受益者,維持「買入」評級及目標價17元。
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本網最新綜合4間券商對其投資評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價
花旗│買入│17元
摩根士丹利│增持│14元
瑞信│跑贏大市│13.5元
摩根大通│增持│15元->12.1元
券商│觀點
花旗│季度業績強勁,成本優勢爲作爲長期贏家奠下基礎
摩根士丹利│季績勝預期,受強勁產量及成本控制推動
瑞信│季度符合盈喜,全年業績目標可達
摩根大通│管理層暗示中長期生產及資本開支目標上調
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