《大行報告》匯豐研究:長倉外資對中資科網股「非常低配」 惟料市場或會重估行業折現率
匯豐環球研究發表中國互聯網行業報告表示,該行近月以來與歐資、美資及亞洲資本的投資者進行溝通及反饋,就近期中資科網股拋售潮之中,持長倉客戶「非常低配」H股,而對沖基金客戶亦等待中國重新開放經濟時出現的撈底機會,以及處於與政策重點一致的行業,預計短期反彈或擠壓。尤其那些接觸內地互聯網行業的長倉客戶稱不願在短期內增加持倉,惟該行料市場或會重估行業折現率。
至於該行根據中資科網股的自由現金流收益率、股東回報前景、估值、監管風險和盈利韌性進行評估,該行料給予「買入」評級的中資科網股未來約平均回報可上升12%,料外賣、電子商務板塊將可跑贏大市呈反彈。
匯豐環球研究指,以現金水平和自由現金流收益率評估,淨現金頭寸佔市值的百分比的首五名為汽車之家(ATHM.US)(料淨現金佔市值92%)、百度(BIDU.US)(料淨現金佔市值52%)、京東(JD.US)(料淨現金佔市值41%)、拼多多(PDD.US)(料淨現金佔市值39%)及網易(NTES.US)(料淨現金佔市值33%),該行料阿里巴巴(BABA.US)淨現金佔市值29%。
該行指,但如果內地宏觀經濟和消費者信心反彈,該行認為與實體經濟聯繫最緊密的子行業將表現更有利,如電子商務(如阿里巴巴)、外賣(如美團)和廣告(如騰訊)的優質股份在這方面應該表現更好。
而該行亦列出給予「買入」評級的中資科網股,包括阿里巴巴(BABA.US)(目標價132美元)、拼多多(PDD.US)(目標價93美元)、美團(03690.HK)(目標價250港元)、京東(JD.US)(目標價78美元)、騰訊(00700.HK)(目標價420港元)、網易(NTES.US)(目標價122美元)、快手(1024.HK)(目標價80港元)、百度(BIDU.US)(目標價165美元)、汽車之家(ATHM.US)(目標價44美元)。
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