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惠譽:內地新出台寬鬆政策或難提振新房銷售額
惠譽評級表示,內地最新出台的旨在穩定房地產行業、重振購房者信心的支持措施,或不足以拉動購房需求。寬鬆的住房政策總體上帶動部分高線城市和國有房企實現小幅上漲,但只要購房者信心仍低迷,全國的新房銷售額便很可能依然萎靡不振。 開發商能否如期保質交房依然是購房者購買預售房的主要擔憂因素。惠譽認為,相對於房價而言,可節省的抵押貸款利息成本和稅款支出無足輕重,因而對新房銷售額產生的影響可能並不大。 此外,惠譽預計抵押貸款利率從經此輪下調後的水平進一步下調的政策空間有限,部分原因在於銀行面臨的淨息差壓力攀升。人行或將更多藉助政策利率以外的其他工具來刺激需求以及發揮政策驅動作用來提振購房者信心。事實上,部分政策性銀行已向受困項目提供可觀的專項貸款以資助其建設及「保交房」,但該類項目的施工進度和質量仍存在不確定性。
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