美聯儲步入噤聲期，“喉舌”撐腰下投資者本週終於可以喘口氣？
美聯儲從本週起已正式步入了11月議息會議前的噤聲期。不過這一回，噤聲期到來之際的市場氛圍，卻似乎顯得頗爲不同尋常：
儘管業內人士普遍預計美聯儲下週將連續第四次加息75個基點，但在美聯儲“喉舌”發聲、噤聲期前鴿派官員壓軸的背景下，當前市場真正關心的重頭戲，卻其實已經放在了12月的利率走向上……
上週五有着新“美聯儲通訊社”之稱的著名記者Nick Timiraos的爆料稱，美聯儲預計將在下次利率會議上，討論是否以及如何釋放12月放緩加息步伐的信號。
而幾乎就在Timiraos發表上述文章後不久，美聯儲鴿派官員舊金山聯儲主席戴利(Mary Daly)上週五也頗爲“默契”地，在美聯儲噤聲期前的壓軸講話中應和了這一說法。
投資者本週終於可以喘口氣了？
從事後來看，Nick Timiraos上週五的最新文章和舊金山聯儲主席戴利的鴿派講話，對於全球金融市場尤其是債券市場的走勢，可以說起到了立竿見影的正面影響。
利率期貨市場的變動無疑最爲直觀地反應了這一點：業內人士對於美聯儲本輪加息終點的預測，迅速從5%以上的高位回落至了約4.86%：
同時，市場也不再堅定地認爲美聯儲12月將加息75個基點。芝商所的美聯儲觀察工具顯示，美聯儲在12月議息會議上加息75個基點的概率預期，已從此前的逾70%跌至了50%以下。
受加息步伐放緩的前景和最新一批企業盈利的提振，美股上週五也再度衝高。儘管美國主要股指當天以下跌姿態開盤，但此後迅速掉頭上漲，最終收於盤中高點附近。其中，道指上漲748.97點，漲幅2.5%，至31082.56點。標普500指數上漲86.97點，漲幅2.4%，至3752.75點。納斯達克綜合指數上漲244.87點，漲幅2.3%，至10,859.72點。
從周線級別看，美國三大股指上週均上漲至少4.7%，這是在全球股市和債市長期大起大落的波動期之後的一次關鍵休整。道指和標普500指數創下了6月以來最佳的單週表現，而納指則下創7月以來最佳的當周表現。
無論如何，隨着美聯儲本週正式步入11月議息會議前的噤聲期，投資者本週的交易或許有望暫時不受美聯儲緊縮政策陰霾的困擾，週一的亞洲市場甚至有望能夠延續上週五美國市場的反彈行情。
當然，就消息面而言，本週的風險事件依然不少。英國政壇的動向、美國三季度的GDP初值數據以及歐洲和日本央行的利率決議，均可能進一步撬動市場行情。
更何況，美股本週將徹底步入企業財報業績發佈的高峯期。微軟、谷歌母公司Alphabet、亞馬遜及蘋果將於本週公佈業績，市場將高度關注通脹與美聯儲加息對這些巨頭們財報業績的影響。
本文來源財聯社，原文有刪減。
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