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植耀輝: 債息升美股偏軟 港股暫難有突破
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(20日)下跌,雖然企業業績表現普遍優於預期,但聯儲局官員再次釋出鷹派言論,債息持續上揚,令美股再度受壓。最終道指下跌90點,收報30,333點,標普及納指分別下跌0.8%及0.6%,收報3,665點及10,614點。 回說港股表現,本周初之「三連升」一度令投資者憧憬大市走勢可望有所改善,不過恆指自周三起又連續兩個交易日下跌,跌勢再度加劇兼破底,頓時令投資氣氛再度轉差。其實恆指近期多次反彈至17,000點關口均無功而還,反映該水平阻力不輕,而且正如筆者過往所指,恆指缺乏利好消息之餘,壞消息卻依舊「一蘿蘿」,在此情況下,只怕大市亦難有突破。事實上,恆指年初至今累跌已超過三成,科指則更誇張,累跌接近45%!不過近期市況之弱亦確實有點超乎預期,現在可能要寄望內地在「二十大」會議後有利好消息傳出,否則港股將維持尋底格局不變。 股份方面,部署上並沒有太大變化,筆者亦繼續看好石油、煤炭以及儲能概念塊。短線則不妨留意國泰(00293.HK),皆因股價近期有所回落,現時亦已跌至橫行區間下方支持,有一定值博率。事實上,雖然現時客運及貨運量與疫情前相比仍有頗遠距離,但表現持續有改善,集團亦提到客運航點較年初(29個)增加一倍之目標維持不變,加上在「0+3」檢疫安排下,外遊需求急增,預期客運表現料持續有可觀反彈。當然現階段考慮國泰之最大要素為憧憬未來航運需求,亦即「Back to normal」(恢復常態)概念,故短線投機味較重,建議可考慮現價買入,短線上望9元,暫以7.1元作止蝕。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ******** 恆指首要的反彈阻力將位於10月17日低位16,308點 耀才研究部稱,隔晚(20日)美股收跌,擁有2023年FOMC投票權的聯儲官員Patrick Harker放鷹,他表示加息對壓制通脹似乎沒有起到作用,聯儲局提高短期利率目標區間的行動尚未完結,需要繼續加息,美國十年期債息衝破4.2厘水平,令股市受壓。同時,激進的加息步伐令新興市場貨幣受壓,離岸人民幣走弱的情況下股市亦很難作出反彈,市場唯有等待中國發佈早前押後的主要經濟數據,同時觀望企業業績。今日有長汽(02333.HK)及紫金(02899.HK)發佈季績。 技術走勢方面,恆指低見16,010點,已到達跌穿第二季雙頂後的量度跌幅,不過由於未出現其他見底訊號,指數尋底機會較大,首要的反彈阻力將位於10月17日低位16,308點。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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