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《大行報告》海通國際:人才置業退稅安排欠吸引 維持本港今明兩年樓價各跌12%及8%預測
海通國際發表研究報告指出,行政長官李家超發表的《施政報告》,就本港房地產行業提出若幹舉措,包括放寬對外來人才的置業限制,由10月19日起,外來人才在港買樓,只要他們成爲香港永久居民後,便可申請全額退還買家印花稅及部分退還從價印花稅,即實際稅率是買家印花稅將被削減爲零,而從價印花稅與普通香港永久居民相同,爲1.5%至4.25%,相對於之前非本地買家應繳30%辣稅大爲削減。 該行指出,基於入境處數據,估計於2016年至2022年上半年的過去六年內,來港人才(不包括畢業生)約有27.3萬人,他們目前在港買樓所繳付的印花稅爲1.5%至4.25%。假設該批人才中的5%會因減稅而買樓,將創造出約1.37萬個買樓需求,相當於2021年住宅總成交量(約7.43萬個)的近18%。 不過,該行認爲該政策要預繳30%的可退回稅款太多,且要成爲香港永久居民後才能獲得退款,退稅安排欠吸引,減稅措施的影響還有待觀察。該行維持對2022及2023年樓價按年各跌12%及8%的預測。此外,如樓價及交投量於明年上半年保持疲弱,相信將港府將進一步放寬樓市政策,如取消額外印花稅(SSD)。 此外,海通國際指本港過去土地短缺的主要原因之一,爲土地轉換緩慢。新一份《施政報告》提出簡化法定程序,將「生地」轉爲「熟地」所需的時間,小規模項目由六年縮短至四年,大規模項目由13年減至7年,是港府首次就土地轉換給予肯定的時間表。加快農地轉換將有利於持有大量農地的發展商,如恆地(00012.HK)及新地(00016.HK)。
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