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A股收評:滬指跌1.19%,大消費板塊集體走弱,航運股逆勢大漲

10月19日,兩市縮量下跌,截止收盤,滬指跌1.19%報3044點,深成指跌1.43%,創業板指跌0.86%。兩市3791股下跌,1045股上漲,成交額7580億,北上資金淨賣出60億。

盤面上,近期表現強勁的醫藥股明顯回落,信創、工業母機概念活躍度下降,但萬方發展、國脈科技等一批強勢股依舊走出連板行情。整體看,題材概念表現低迷,維生素概念重挫,新和成跌8.8%;雞肉、豬肉概念大跌,温氏股份跌近5%;釀酒、家電、家居、食品等板塊大跌靠前,瀘州老窖、海天味業跌5%,美的集團跌4.6%。航運概念延續近期強勢,中遠海特、中遠海能漲停;物流、儲能、固態電池等概念活躍。

具體來看:

家電概念跌幅居前,長虹美菱跌超6%,海爾智家跌超5%,美的集團、格力電器、海信家電等跟跌。招商證券此前表示,促消費+穩地產,家電迎來佈局良機,建議關注三季度業績前瞻報吿。1)白電下半年需求逐步復甦、穩增長帶動地產竣工數據回暖,大宗原材料價格回落趨勢明確、業績改善確定性強;2)把握成本回落+地產寬鬆預期,建議關注四季度廚電拐點;3)守正出奇,關注業績超預期標的。

白酒概念走低,瀘州老窖跌超5%,洋河股份跌超4%,捨得酒業、貴州茅台、金種子酒跌超3%。東莞證券指出,從業績來看,近日貴州茅台、瀘州老窖、山西汾酒等公司披露了1-9月生產經營數據。大部分白酒公司三季度業績實現穩健增長,基本面彰顯韌性。如果後續疫情出現邊際改善拐點,預計白酒消費場景將陸續恢復,需求有望復甦回暖。可持續關注白酒動銷、批價、三季報業績等情況,把握確定性高的投資機會。

燃氣概念大跌,水發燃氣跌停,勝利股份跌超9%,德龍匯能跌超6%,新天然氣、九豐能源等跟跌。消息面上,歐盟本週二公佈新的天然氣價格限制方案。根據最新市場信息,方案包括強制共同購買天然氣。根據計劃,歐盟成員國充分利用聯合談判的議價能力,合作購買足夠多的天然氣,採購總量至少佔其儲存量的15%。草案同時允許公司組建歐洲財團,就天然氣長期合約進行談判,但俄羅斯供應來源將被排除在參與之外。

航運港口概念領漲,中遠海特、中遠海能、連雲港漲停,寧波海運、錦州港漲超9%,招商輪船漲超7%。財信證券指出,俄油禁運擴大運力需求,油運板塊有望迎來週期反轉。受俄油禁運影響,未來油運板塊的供需缺口或將達到歷史極值,油運價格有望迎來景氣大週期。該行認為俄油禁運後油運板塊的景氣週期與2021-2022年集運板塊的景氣週期具備可比性,因此參考集運板塊的估值水平,給予國內龍頭油運企業3-4倍的PE估值。

鋰電池概念活躍,蔚藍鋰芯、金龍羽、德賽電池漲停,億緯鋰能漲超5%。消息面上,澳大利亞PLS鋰精礦第10次拍賣價再創新高,當地時間18日,澳大利亞皮爾巴拉礦業(Pilbara Minerals Ltd.)發佈公吿,在電池材料交易所(BMX)第10輪數字拍賣進行之前,其已經接受7100美元/噸的拍賣前競價並附加10%的押金,此報價等同於相關CIF中國等價基礎的7830美元/噸,並預計11月中旬發貨。

快遞物流概念繼續走強,天順股份、廈門象嶼漲停,中創物流漲超6%,華茂物流、海程邦達跟漲。國泰君安證券研報指出,“雙11”電商大促在即,儘管市場對消費市場態度偏謹慎,但預計大促期間快遞量仍將呈現巨量峯值,且仍有望同比保持較明顯增長。過去一年,電商快遞市場非理性價格戰得到有效遏制,行業競爭階段趨緩,頭部企業盈利修復目標堅定,預計2022年旺季價格策略仍將遵循行業季節性規律,有望在10月至11月逐步針對大促期間進行積極的季節性提價,以對沖旺季臨時性成本上升,有利於四季度盈利超預期表現。

今日,北上資金淨流入-43.68億元,其中滬股通淨流入-37.73億元,深股通淨流入-5.95億元。

展望後市,東吳證券指出,指數在3100點附近受阻震盪,考慮到目前大的趨勢並未扭轉,震盪屬於正常現象,關鍵看震盪整固消化了浮籌後,市場是在新熱點的帶動下繼續向上,還是再次陷入熱點快速切換的陷阱從而面臨二次探底的風險,建議重點留意熱點的持續性和發散情況,光伏、儲能等中線賽道股則仍可做持續關注。

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