美股“強勁反彈”概率正在提升
MKM Partners策略師Michael Darda表示，標普500指數市盈率在標準化的基礎上出現了“歷史性崩潰”。“標普500指數(SPY.US)的遠期市盈率已從去年的峯值23倍跌至約15倍，”Darda在一份報告中寫道。“我們可以使用五年均值迴歸的方法來對指數進行重新估計，如果經濟衰退風險很高，則沒有人會選擇相信遠期市盈率。據數據顯示，我們見證了美股估值的歷史性崩潰，從一年前的近29倍五年平均估值跌至今天的略低於20倍。”
“上個世紀以來，於2001年、2008年和1930年，標普500指數曾在12個月的年週期中出現了3次大幅度的標準化市盈率下降。”Darda表示。“而不幸的是，於每一次事件週期，未來股市都走向疲軟。”
“在大蕭條的情況下我們經歷了一次驚人的政策失誤，美聯儲制定的政策於期間引發且導致了名義GDP暴跌50%。在2008年引發了NGDP衝擊和嚴重的金融危機。2001年的衰退也是獨一無二的，因爲股市在衰退結束約10個月後觸底。”
他表示，其他幾次“戰後衰退”中，股市則在衰退期間見底，並且見底出現在衰退結束前約五個月。
但Darda指出，“由於最近股市幾乎直線下滑的性質，加上美國國債收益率(TBT)(TLT)(SHY)的持續上升和不斷上升的最終政策利率預期，都是由一種統一力量(一致性的力量，尤其是一些滯後性的指標)所支撐的。”Darda同時指出，“逆勢反彈的可能性也正在上升。”
“由於通脹率遠遠高於美聯儲預期目標值，且租金、工資和核心服務通脹都‘過於火熱’，因此其制定了一系列非常激進的加息政策，”他補充道。“任何潛在或實際趨於疲軟的滯後性指標調整，都將幫助拉低政策利率峯值預期和美國國債收益率，進而推動美股反彈。”
“滯後性指標(反向)優先於領先性指標，這確實應該對於某種逆趨勢反彈有利。”Darda強調。
據悉，BTIG預計，標普500指數或在未來將跌至3400點。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
