《即日市評》恆指未能上企萬七關 港交所倒跌
恆指連跌六個交易日(累跌1,698點)後,今日一度重返17,000點,可惜午後升幅明顯收窄。美國9月CPI按年升8.2%,按月升幅擴至0.4%高過市場預期,主要受住房、食品和醫保價格上漲推動,美股道指及納指隔晚反覆升2.8%及2.2%;據芝商所FedWatch利率期貨工具顯示,聯儲局於今年11月會議加息0.75厘的機會升至99.8%,執筆之時,美國10年期債券孳息率處3.92厘,美匯指數最新升至112.78,道指期貨最新跌82點或0.27%,納指期貨最新跌0.63%。中國9月CPI按年升2.8%(市場預期升2.9%),9月PPI按年升0.9%(市場預期升1%),人民幣即期收跌3點報7.1931兌一美元,上證綜指全日升55點或1.8%收3,071點,深證成指升2.8%,滬深兩市成交額8,608億人民幣。
恆指高開282點後升幅擴大,最多升639點一度高見17,028點,惟午後升幅曾顯著收窄至146點,全日收16,587點,升198點或1.21%;國指升68點或1.23%,收5,629點;恆生科技指數升48點或1.55%,報3,206點。大市全日成交總額1,019.36億元,滬、深港通南下交易分別淨流入29.26億及29.83億元人民幣。市傳英國將修改減稅方案,匯控(00005.HK)升4.6%報40.55元,渣打(02888.HK)升4.5%報48.6元。
恆指本周累跌1,152點或6.5%、國指本周累跌445點或7.3%、恆生科指本周累跌333點或9.4%。市場憂美聯儲進取加息、俄烏衝突加劇及內地官媒連環發文撐動態清零,大摩發表報告表示,美9月CPI高於預期,對未來加息發出「鷹派」信息,因8月持續物價壓力未有減弱,估計此不太可能改變美聯儲近期的政策路徑,當局可能不得不考慮在今年12月再次加息75個基點,而該行目前的基本假設是加息50個基點。
【恆指升幅收窄 港交所呈倒跌】
港交所(00388.HK)全日股價倒跌4.6%報246.6元。摩根士丹利發表技術分析報告,相信港交所股價於60日內將下跌,料發生機會率為70%至80%。該行表示,香港股票市場受利率上升及宏觀不明朗的持續拖累,港股第三季的日均成交額按季下跌25%,總市值亦按季倒退21%,料對港交所的交易及清算費用構成壓力。而集團對未來增長的投資費用似乎並不靈活,因此該行預期港交所第三季盈利將按年下跌35%。
科技股升幅收窄,騰訊(00700.HK)全日升1.2%報249.2元,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)升0.7%,美團(03690.HK)升2.1%報149元。中金發表報告,預測騰訊今年第三季收入按年下降3%至1,379億人民幣,經調整淨利潤按年增長4%至331.3億人民幣,指雖然公司收入仍在探底中,但相信其利潤長期改善趨勢確定 。
【升股千二隻 醫藥股彈高】
港股今日市寬轉強,主板股票升跌比率為28比13(上日為12比27),上升股份1,204隻(升幅3.5%);恆指成份股今日51隻股份上升,下跌股份16隻,升跌比率為70比22(上日為15比82)。大市今日錄沽空185.1億元,佔可沽空股份成交額856.8億元的21.6%(上日為21.2%)。
醫藥股顯著上升,信達生物(01801.HK)股價彈高13%,藥明生物(02269.HK)揚近8.6%,藥明康德(02359.HK)股價搶高10.2%。大摩報告表示,就藥明康德發盈喜,預計今年首三季度收入及經調整非國際財務報告準則下淨利潤按年升71.9%及77.9%,較該行原預期高3.6%及17%,即相當於今年第三季收入及經調整非國際財務報告準則下淨利潤按年分別升77.8%及82%。該行指,藥明康德給予全年收入增長68%至72%的指引,鑑於其今年首九個月業績強勁,該行認為這是非常可實現,重申藥明康德為該行的喜愛股份之一。
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