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《大行報告》美銀證券:維持啤酒股「買入」評級 青啤(00168.HK)及潤啤(00291.HK)短期盈利較好
美銀證券發表研究報告指,在上半年的疫情下,由於健康的競爭和全行業的資本及成本開支控制,整體啤酒公司錄得穩健的盈利增長。進入2023年,行業有利的供應面或能提供強大的盈利緩衝和下行保護,而高端化、通關或成本方面的任何積極因素都可能帶來額外的上行空間。該行維持對所有啤酒股的「買入」評級,並認為青島啤酒(00168.HK)和華潤啤酒(00291.HK)短期內的盈利動力較好。 報告提到,青島啤酒受惠於高端化和成本優化的結構,擁有具吸引力的長期利潤率上升空間。在高端產品及成本效率的推動下,料並2022至24年將有介乎15%至19%的核心盈利複合年增長率。該行分別上調集團今明兩年每股盈測各2%,以反映更強勁的銷量及成本利好因素,維持青啤目標價94.5元。 報告又預測,華潤啤酒第三季的次高端或以上的產品銷量將增長介乎約13%至17%,由於第四季的基數很低,料2022財年的核心盈利按年複合增長逾兩成。此外,隨著全球啤酒行業的品類擴張,集團近期以小量投資進軍白酒市場,市場普遍預期進一步投資將達到臨界點。該行對華潤投資白酒的行動仍持建設性態度,相信不會破壞其核心啤酒業務,但可能會在未來建立第二個增長動力,維持潤啤目標價75元。 美銀證券補充,百威亞太(01876.HK)第三季收入料錄低單位數增長,正常化EBITDA料錄低單位數倒退,降今明兩年正常化EBITDA預測各2%,以反映疫情對中國銷量的影響。重申「買入」評級,目標價28元。
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