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《大行報告》瑞銀:內地防疫措施「保持原狀」 國慶黃金周消費疲弱
瑞銀發表中國消費行業報告,據中國商務部數據,內地14個省於十一國慶黃金周(10月1日至7日)的總銷售額中位數按年增長約3%,而餐飲銷售額按年下降約2%,這略低於今年8月的消費按年復甦勢頭(零售總額、餐廳銷售額按年各增長5.4%及8.4%)。自8月以來基於中共二十大前的新冠防疫措施「保持原狀」(stay put)下,阻礙了餐飲業的銷售復甦趨勢。 按內地100個城市交通擁堵指數顯示,流動性數據顯示黃金周沒有改善。受惠於一系列補貼,電器類銷售於黃金周有望從三季度開始回升;華東地區運動服需求因黃金周天氣寒冷而有所回升。由於宏觀不確定性及利潤率前景改善下,該行喜愛日常消費行業多於非必需消費行業。 該行在內需股看好康師傅(00322.HK)、統一企業中國(00220.HK)、東鵬飲料(605499.SH)、華潤啤酒(00291.HK)、青島啤酒(00168.HK)、百威亞太(01876.HK)、伊利股份(600887.SH)、蒙牛(02319.HK)、涪陵榨菜(002507.SZ) 、中炬高新(600872.SH)和中國飛鶴(06186.HK)。貴州茅台(600519.SH)是該行在中國白酒領域的首選,指美的集團(000333.SZ)和百勝中國-S(09987.HK)是該行最青睞的非必需消費品股份。
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