《大行報告》大摩下調內房股目標價 藍籌國企內房土儲充足助增市場份額
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,估計內地房地產發展商在2023年下半年迎來顯著的實體市場復甦前,指短期內仍然不具吸引力,該行對政策寬鬆與額外違約之間的波動情緒維持中立,並認為擁有豐富土地儲備、且更安全的國企藍籌內房股,有助增加市場份額。
該行預計,內地房地產的竣工量2023年上半年反彈,銷量則在2023年第三季反彈,並在2024年上半年錄得房地產投資(REI)和新開工量回升。該行指,由於銷售疲軟、交貨延遲、毛利率下降、資產減值損失和利息支出增加,將2022至2024財年的平均盈測下調12至16%。
大摩又將行業觀點下調至符合預期,下調碧桂園(02007.HK)及旭輝(00884.HK)評級,均由「增持」下調至「與大市同步」,降碧桂園目標價由5.79元下修至1.92元,降旭輝目標價由3.73元下修至0.8元。該行亦調低對合景泰富(01813.HK)的評級由「與大市同步」降至「減持」,將目標價由2.69元降至0.96元。,
該行表示,料華潤置地(01109.HK)、保利發展(600048.SH)和中國海外發展(00688.HK)等風險較低的國企藍籌股作為關鍵的市場整合者,該行維持對華潤置地「增持」評級,目標價由45.19元下調至38.98元,重申對中國海外「增持」評級,目標價由30.04元下調至23.84元。
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