《大行報告》摩通對蔚來及小鵬的最新看法及淨現金與資本比率預測(表)
內地「新勢力」電動車股近日沽壓重,蔚來-SW(09866.HK)及小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)今早股價各挫近8.1%及6.7%,理想汽車-W(02015.HK)更急跌15.2%報80.2元。
摩根大通發表內地汽車行業報告,指中資汽車股於今年第四季仍會受壓,並列出對蔚來及小鵬汽車的最新看法:
(1)該行對蔚來的看法
-受益於其在中國品牌中高端電動汽車領域的獨特地位
-料於明年第四季度隨着新車型的推出,包括ET7轎車、ES7 SUV和 ET5轎車,銷量將顯着回升
-預計蔚來2023年總銷量將從今年14萬輛增至25萬輛
-在盈利能力方面,預計由於銷量增長和電池成本穩定,蔚來毛利率將於第四季度恢復至約16至17%
(2)該行對小鵬的看法
-看好小鵬的戰略性中端細分市場,每輛建議零售價約爲15萬至30萬人民幣,這是內地最大潛在新能源汽車市場(佔銷量逾三分之一)
-預計公司於2022及2023財年的銷量將達到14.5萬輛及24.9 萬輛,意味着按年增長48%及73%
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該行亦列出蔚來及小鵬汽車的預測今年的現金與市值、現金與資本比率預測:
股份│預測今年淨現金與市值比率│預測今年淨現金與資本比率
蔚來(NIO.US)│-4.6%│-29%
小鵬汽車(XPEV.US)│-0.3%│-1%
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摩通亦列出蔚來及小鵬汽車今年下半年盈利表現預測:
股份│今年上半年業績│預測今年下半年盈利
蔚來│虧損45.7億人民幣│虧損49.3億人民幣
小鵬汽車│虧損25.77億人民幣│虧損67.75億人民幣
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