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这个指标显示,美股近几日反弹史无前例
uSMART盈立智投 10-05 09:55

最近几日美股的持续反弹可能是史上罕见的。

全球量化交易机构Susquehanna International Group(SIG)的衍生品策略联合主管Chris Murphy指出,最近五个交易日内,97%的标普500指数成份股都第三日上涨,这是至少2000年来首次出现。

Murphy称,投资者关注97%的标普500成份股这种涨势是因为,标普往往在有97%的成份股上涨次日回落。

Murphy指出,不计上周五,本周是2015年8月25日以来首次出现,97%的标普500成份股在五个交易日内两日上涨。2015年出现97%的成份股这样上涨后,标普500指数反弹约13%,六个月后创新低。

本周二是三大美国股指连续第二日集体收涨,且周二当天创至少两个多月来最大单日涨幅。其中道指收涨2.8%,创5月4日以来最大百分比涨幅,标普500和纳指到收盘都涨超3%,纳指创7月27日以来最大涨幅。

标普收涨3.06%,继周一涨近2.7%创7月27日以来最大涨幅后,又创6月24日以来最大单日收盘涨幅,追平6月24日所创的2020年5月以来最大日涨幅。而且,标普本周一和周二两日累计涨幅超过5.7%,创2020年4月以来最大两日涨幅。

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在此之前,截至上周五的9月最后一个交易日,标普一个月内跌超9.3%,创2020年3月以来最大月跌幅,纳指和道指9月分别累跌10.5%和8.8%。

9月美股指大跌主要源于投资者越发担心美联储激进加息酿成经济衰退。而本周前两日的反弹得益于市场开始预期,美联储会放缓加息步伐,对联储出现鸽派转向的期望重燃。

本周二公布的美国8月空缺职位数创14个月新低,并创2020年4月以来最大月环比降幅,可能符合美联储期望的劳动力市场紧张放缓,令市场更看好美联储为避免硬着陆而放缓激进加息脚步,因此美股涨幅扩大。此外,周二澳大利亚联储加息幅度意外低于预期,加之周一英国央行紧急宣布临时购债,都令市场怀疑央行的鹰派行动已达顶峰。

不过,也有评论认为,最近两日美国国债收益率和美元双双下行,利率和流动性的压力比上周低了许多,从而减轻了美联储效法英国央行“救市”的压力,因此美联储的鸽派转向可能不会很快到来。

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