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植耀輝: 美股反覆偏軟 觀望非農數據
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(5日)走勢反覆,ADP數據及ISM非製造業指數均優於預期,聯儲局官員亦發表鷹派言論,道指一度跌破30,000點關口,不過在資源股支持下,三大指數跌幅持續收窄,最終道指下跌42點或0.1%,收報30,273點,標普500指數及納指則分別下跌0.2%及0.25%。 至於港股,承接美股過去兩個交易日造好,恆指大幅高開後維持升勢,最多便曾大升超過1,085點,高見18,164點,雖然尾市升幅稍為收窄,但全日計仍大升超過1,008點或5.9%,收報18,087點,大市成交暢旺,全日成交金額達到1,054.68億元。成份股幾乎全線上升,僅得碧桂園(02007.HK)、碧服(06098.HK)及石藥(01093.HK)下跌,但跌幅亦相對輕微,反而多隻藍籌出現可觀反彈,安踏(02020.HK)、京東-SW(09618.HK)、李寧(02331.HK)及申洲(02313.HK)便升超過一成。 雖然港股出現強勁反彈,惟筆者對後市看法仍相對有保留,特別是美股是否能延續升勢,週五之非農新增職位數據便變得十分關鍵,不過筆者認為聯儲局暫不會改變息口去向,相信港股短期再大升機會不高,預期將於18,000點水平先作整固。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ************* 恆指率先於18,000點整數關口整固 耀才研究部稱,美國9月ADP就業報告新增20.8萬個職位,優於預期的20萬和前值18.5萬人,市場憂慮聯儲繼續鷹派加息,隔晚(5日)美股三大指數低開後反覆上落,道指終止兩連升,曾最多跌400點,不過亦試過倒升過百點。於2023年有投票權的鴿派官員Mary Daly亦放鷹直指美國明年通脹仍然會有3%,未貼近目標2%前市場不應預期聯儲開始減息。金龍中國指數回吐0.7%,恆指率先於18,000點整數關口整固,主要阻力位於9月22日的裂口頂18,434點。 技術走勢方面,恆指與3月15日相比,指數出現底背馳的先兆,但仍然處於浪低於浪的階段,指數未出現MACD牛訊號或升穿20天線的話,投資者不宜過度進取博反彈。以黃金比率起計,恆指反彈0.382水平最多能見18,995點。 。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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