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《美國股市》晨星:明年底前美聯儲或有放鬆貨幣政策空間
晨星(Morningstar)發布第四季美股展望,預計在未來6至12個月內,市場將繼續承壓,仍然有較高的波動性,市場較為關注經濟活動反彈的時間及預期通脹有否下降,該行預計,這段期間美國GDP將仍然處於低位,美聯儲將結束緊縮政策,利率或會更高,而通脹將開始放緩。這些因素或為美聯儲在2023年底前開始放鬆貨幣政策提供空間。 晨星相信,美國經濟衰退風險將集中在2023年,屆時全年增長將會觸底,料各種價格升幅將開始受控,美聯儲將超額完成將通脹率恢復至2%的目標。而隨著美聯儲轉向寬鬆政策,其GDP增長將從2024年開始反彈。該行又認為,隨著疫情消退和消費者行為正常化,以服務為導向的行業將會受惠。另外,石油價格從6月初見頂後一直回落,能源的估值會被低估。醫療保健的估值錄得跌幅,公用事業估值則仍然偏高。 晨星美國經濟研究主管Preston Caldwell指,看好具防守性的行業,認為酒精飲品行業的估值受到低估,並可從因投資者避險而拋售的醫療科技領域中尋找機會,亦可留意在可再生能源建設中獲得良好增長機會的公司,看好超越肉類公司(BYND.US)、Hain Celestial Group(HAIN.US)、Boston Beer Company Inc(SAM.US)、捷邁公司(ZBH.US)等。 他又預期,鋰需求將在2021至30年間增長近5倍,這主要是由於電動汽車採用率增加,導致鋰供應不足,又預計除冰鹽價格將在2022至23年冬季上漲14%,預計未來幾年大宗化學品價格將保持高位。 晨星首席美國市場策略師Dave Sekera指,本季至今美國2年期國債上漲135個基點至4.27%,10年期上漲90個基點至3.88%,分別是自2007年和2011年以來2年期和10年期的最高收益率。他預計,美聯儲將資產負債表翻倍的影響可能會在短期內導致長期利率上升,料到2023年的10年期美國國債收益率平均為3%。
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