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《大行報告》高盛上調今季油價預測至每桶110美元 明年首季預測升至115美元
阿思達克 10-06 09:57
高盛發表研究報告指出,石油輸出國組織及盟國(OPEC+)同意於11月起每日減產200萬桶石油供應,並指由於宏觀擔憂加劇,承認需採取積極措施來穩定市場,另認為市場上閒置產能太少,為激勵適當的投資,油價需要更高(尤其是相對於其他能源價格)。正如該行長期認為石油市場的緩衝(庫存和備用產能)仍然極低,提升油價是短期內增加庫存及提高中期供應能力的關鍵可行解決方案。 該行認為,鑑於目前全球石油庫存枯竭狀況,油價飆升的風險仍然存在。如果庫存完全耗盡,價格飆升的可能性會更高,須作出破壞需求手段以達致再平衡,屆時每桶油價可能再升超過30美元。目前,該行將今年第四季及明年首季的油價預測保守上調每桶10美元,分別至每桶110及115美元,承認價格風險可能更高。
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