《大行報告》法巴首予贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)「買入」評級 每股合理價值75元
法巴發表研究報告,首予贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)「買入」評級及每股合理值75元。該行表示,集團將繼續受惠於全球汽車電氣化趨勢,又認爲H股較A股折讓37%,亦較該行公允價值估計折讓30%,具有吸引力,但A股的估值爲合理水平。
該行提到,受惠於電動汽車數量及採用率增加,鋰需求量從2019年的28.5萬噸碳酸鋰當量(LCE)升至2021年達到47.3萬噸LCE。預計到2030年,全球鋰需求將上升至230萬噸LCE,意味着增長近四倍。
監於滿足需求所需的供應以及新項目投產所需的時間,該行認爲,鋰市場在這十年剩餘時間內仍將供應不足。供應短缺將支撐鋰價格高於預期。此外,預料較低質量的鋰精礦將進入生產以滿足需求,惟這需要更高的轉換成本,並將永久地令成本曲線上移。雖然該行預計價格將略有放緩,但料2023年碳酸鋰的平均價格爲每噸7萬美元,較當前水平下降少於一成。
該行預計集團的鋰化合物銷量在2021至2024年將錄得18%的複合年增長率。由於鋰供應短缺的情況預計將持續存在,料2021至2024年的收入複合年增長率爲50%,化合物平均售價的複合年增長率爲34%。贛鋒至2024年純利或以46%的三年複合年增長率增長至162億元人民幣。
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