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《大行報告》匯豐研究下調郵儲銀行(01658.HK)評級至「持有」 料撥備前利潤或令市場高期望落空
郵儲銀行(01658.HK)今早(3日)股價受壓,盤中曾低見4.06元一度下滑12.3%,最新報4.16元跌10.2%。匯豐環球研究發表報告,市場一向對郵儲銀行期望很高,在近日對存款代理費的變化感到失望,決定下調對其投資評級由「買入」降至「持有」,目標價由6元降至5.05元。 該行指,經過六個月的審查,郵儲行提議降低支付給中國郵政集團的存款代理費;綜合調整將降低其去年備考混合存款代理費率2個基點。該行認為下調幅度低於市場預期,這可能會降低對未來存款機構費用下調的預期。 匯豐環球研究指,郵儲銀行按揭貸款的定價能力進一步受壓,於今年上半年住宅抵押貸款佔郵儲銀行總貸款的31.9%,新的首套房抵押貸款利率從2021年12月的5.64%下降到2022年9月的4.15%,較年初顯著下降。人民銀行還發布了引導新房抵押貸款利率下降的新政策。該行看到郵儲銀行按揭貸款負重新定價和加速抵押貸款還款的風險增加。 該行指,下調對郵儲銀行2022年至2024年各年盈利預測各0.7%、4%及7.3%,料郵儲行的撥備前利潤增長或令市場高期望落空,指在內銀股中更看好中國銀行(03988.HK)及交通銀行(03328.HK)。
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