植耀輝: 美股跌勢再現 港股恐續試低位
阿思達克 10-03 11:41
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，美股上周五(9月30日)再度急跌，8月核心個人消費支出(PCE)高於預期，投資者繼續關注未來息口去向，加上對經濟前景之擔憂，三大指數再度下跌，當中道指下跌500點或1.7%，收報28,725點，標普500指數及納指均下跌1.5%。
至於港股在9月最後一個交易日總算止跌回穩，恆指一度逼近17,000點關口，雖然最終未有失守並有所反彈，但全日計恆指僅升56點，收報17,222點，不過科指頹勢持續，再跌32點，收報3,450點，續創面世以來新低。全周計，恆指及科指分別累跌約3.9%，但若以9月份及第三季表現計，則恆指跌幅達到13.7%及21.2%，科指跌幅更達到19.27%及29.2%，跌幅計說是股災也不為過。統計第三季表現，個別成份股跌幅亦十分驚人，碧桂園(02007.HK)及碧服(06098.HK)期內跌幅便達到67%及62.6%。事實上，第三季亦只得5隻藍籌錄得升幅而已，分別是金沙中國(01928.HK)、中國神華(01088.HK)、中國移動(00941.HK)、農夫山泉(09633.HK)及周大福(01929.HK)，升幅則介乎0.14%至5.24%。
由於內地「十一」長假期展開，在A股休市及缺乏北水情況下，預期美股表現將左右港股去向。值得留意的是，本周美國將公布一系列經濟數據，最受關注肯定是周五(10月7日)公布之最新就業表現，預期市況仍會十分波動，執筆之時美期顯著下跌，拖累新加坡「黑期」一度大跌近300點，並失守17,000點關口，恐怕港股今日(10月3日)將進一步回落。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，持有中移動股份)
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北水本周暫停令市況更淡靜
耀才研究部稱，強勁的經濟數據令美股未能止跌回升，美國核心個人消費開支(PCE)按年增長4.9%，漲幅大過7月及預期的4.7%，為今年4月以來最大升幅，引發了聯儲持續加息的憂慮，美匯指數一度刷新廿年新高至114.79，美股三大指數均收跌介乎1.5%至1.7%，市場仍然減持股票並等待反彈的時機。港股缺乏北水流動，大市成交縮減令投資者入市意欲更低，上文提到，以基本因素以及技術走勢作出分析，均指出恆指需要下試16,000點的水平才能出現超跌反彈的情況，投資者宜耐心等候。
技術走勢方面，恆指未能升穿18,250點亦即約10天線水平，整體走勢依然呈反覆下跌之趨勢，後市仍有較大機會維持尋底可能。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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