You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
中信期貨:油價至暗時刻尚未來臨,或維持較爲緩慢的重心回落
uSMART盈立智投 09-28 10:49

9月28日訊,中信期貨表示,一方面俄羅斯原油出口維持,供應中斷擔憂推升的風險溢價逐漸回落。另一方面,拜登在高通脹壓力下推出多重打壓油價措施,成爲地緣下行風險。

其次,海外經濟加速回落,美歐央行爲抑制通脹維持鷹派緊縮,對原油消費和期貨投機需求仍形成抑制。此外,一季度油品庫存續降,二季度止跌小幅回升,三季度庫存增速加快,四季度預計繼續累庫。庫存上行導致供需估值下移。

就原油價格而言,目前已經初步回落,至暗時刻尚未來臨。上半年地緣向上支撐主導,下半年金融壓力漸趨顯著。

自2020年2季度疫情導致短期衰退後,本輪復甦週期接近尾聲,海外衰退跡象初顯,系統風險逐漸升溫。在溫和衰退的基準情形下,油價或維持較爲緩慢的重心回落。

近日,高盛下調了2023年的油價預測,因預期需求疲軟和美元走強,但表示持續的全球供應短缺只會強化其長期看漲預期。高盛的大宗商品研究部門將明年的平均油價預測下調了每桶17.5美元,即使其認爲經季節性調整後2022年第四季度和2023年全球石油市場會出現短缺。

據消息人士,俄羅斯可能會在下次會議上提議歐佩克+將產量減少約100萬桶/日。美國至9月23日當週API原油庫存錄得415萬桶,預期33.3萬桶,大幅超出預期,前值103.5萬桶。汽油庫存錄得-104.8萬桶,預期40萬桶,前值322.5萬桶。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account