9月27日期貨市場盤前必讀——金屬篇
1. 銀河期貨分析指出,宏觀方面,多位美聯儲官員堅持鷹派立場,美聯儲強硬的鷹派觀點令美股及金屬市場承壓下行。
基本面方面,國內外基本面較爲分化,最近供應端出現一些鬆動,進口銅集中流入市場,江西地區冶煉廠採購到陽極板以後,產量逐步恢復正常,清遠江銅也恢復生產,不過下遊拿貨也較爲積極,一方面本身消費還可以,另外一方面下遊普通認可這個價格,節前積極補庫,滬銅10-12合約之間價差擴大至1500元/噸。LME連續三日出現交倉,中國保稅區的銅一部分運到了亞洲地區,歐洲地區的隱性庫存也開始交倉。
價格方面來看,最近銅價一直處於震盪區間內,壓力來自於美聯儲加息預期推動的美元指數的持續上漲,但是目前銅一直處於低庫存且持續去庫的狀態,國內外的基本面有些分化,LME集中交倉,但是國內銅非常緊張,擠倉行情仍然在延續,滬銅當月-三月合約價差擴大至1500元/噸,內盤相對來說較爲強勢,目前價格上,現貨方面還是存在支撐。
2. 9月27日,南鋼對南京地區建材價格調整如下:螺紋:上調20元/噸,現Φ16-25mmHRB400螺紋鋼執行價4060元/噸;備註:12mm螺加120元、14mm加30元、28mm、32mm加50元、抗震加30元、核電螺紋加50元;以上調整均爲含稅,自2022年9月27日起執行。
3. 長江期貨高級研究員吳灝德9月27日滬鋁觀點:鋁價跌至低位後,節前的備貨行爲或將爲鋁價帶來支撐,但美元持續上升和即將來臨的放假導致的減倉,我們對此次反彈並不十分樂觀,反彈的高度或看至18550-18650。今日主力合約關注18000支撐和18350壓力。
4. 國泰君安期貨鐵礦石高級研究員馬亮9月27日盤前觀點:①鐵礦石:後期終端需求的回暖仍存在較大不確定性,國慶假期前爐料和成材補庫需求的持續性仍然未知,節後甚至有鋼廠利潤持續惡化和供需矛盾加深的可能,預計鐵礦石期價的反彈空間將較爲有限。②螺紋鋼:受需求階段反饋支撐,鋼材價格或偏強震盪,但是考慮到旺季需求仍有較大的證僞壓力,鋼材價格上行空間或較爲有限。
5. 中信證券研報指出,隨着需求端的恢復和全年鋼企限產政策的推進,鋼鐵行業供需格局有望持續改善。與此同時,原料端鐵礦石受到鋼廠減產的影響,預計持續向鋼鐵行業讓利,預計下半年開始鋼鐵行業利潤有所恢復。基於此判斷,鋼鐵行業當前具備配置價值。
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