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《大行報告》花旗:匯控(00005.HK)面臨英鎊走弱風險較大 本季英鎊貶值13%令資本比率承壓
花旗發表報告表示,英國政府上周五(23日)宣布了一項出乎意料的大規模財政支持計劃,由於市場擔心該預算有可能令英國處於不可持續的財政狀況,消息令英鎊兌美元匯價自峰值至相關消息宣布以後累跌7.7%,目前處於1.06。英鎊遭拋售亦導致匯豐控股(00005.HK)和渣打(02888.HK)昨日(26日)在本港股價受壓,相信是市場反映鎊匯貶值的影響,而該行認為匯控所面臨英鎊貶值所帶來的風險較渣打為大。 該行指,按匯控2021年年報披露的資料估算其受外匯變動的敏感度,假設歐元和英鎊兌美元每貶值5%,料匯控股本會減少30億美元,2021財年賬面值會下調1.7%。若以2021財年歐洲業務損益表為基礎進行估算,每5%的外匯貶值可能會影響收入10億美元,運營支出會增加9億美元,稅前盈利下降約1億美元(匯控2021年列賬基準除稅前利潤189億美元,旗下歐洲業務列賬基準除稅前利潤37.79億美元)。 花旗表示,今年第三季度英鎊兌美元貶值13%,該行估計這可能對資本(普通股權一級資本比率(CET1))造成15個基點的壓力(估計令CET1下降6.2%)。於今年第三季度,五年期英國和美國政府債券收益率分別上調247個基點和104個基點,這可以給集團其他綜合損益(OCI)帶來40億美元的壓力,從以影響資本約50個基點。 該行料匯控去年旗下歐洲貸款於總體貸款(1.057萬億美元)佔比約38%,僅英國就佔總貸款的25%,估計匯控旗下歐洲業務收入於總體收入(501億美元)佔比40%,料佔集團於2021年除稅前利潤(219億美元)約24%。該行維持對匯控「買入」投資評級及目標價66.3元。
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