《即日市評》恆指「四連跌」成交千億 匯控及長和系捱沽
英鎊受壓及市場憂慮英國經濟前景,港股今日反覆向下。英國新任首相卓慧思政府上周五出台自1972年以來最激進的減稅方案,下調家庭和企業稅率,方案將在未來五年耗費1,610億英鎊,美股道指及納指上周五各跌1.6%及1.8%,執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率升至3.776厘,美匯指數最新升至113.24,道指期貨最新跌48點或0.16%,納指期貨最新升0.06%。摩通亞洲區貨幣指數跌0.34%報97.03,人行將遠期售匯業務外匯風險準備金率調整為20%,人民幣即期收跌360點報7.1464兌一美元,上證綜指全日跌37點或1.2%收3,051點,深證成指跌0.4%,滬深兩市成交額6,679億人民幣。
恆指低開151點後抽高,曾倒升144點一度高見18,077點,午後最多跌205點低見17,727點,全日跌78點或0.44%,收17,855點,連跌四日(累跌926點或4.9%);國指全日升23點或0.38%,收6,137點;恆生科技指數升57點或1.61%,收3,647點。大市全日成交總額1,043.54億元,滬、深港通南下交易分別淨流入7.98億及2.67億元人民幣。
【憂英國前景 匯控長和弱】
英國政府推出被視為50年來最激進減稅方案,英鎊兌美元今天於亞洲時段跌至1.0349美元,創紀錄低,匯控(00005.HK)股價下挫7.5%收42.25元,渣打(02888.HK)股價走低7.1%。新加坡銀行發表報告,形容英國經濟脆弱,俄烏衝突帶來的能源危機正帶來衰退威脅,亦刺激通脹升至雙位數水平。英國正面對猶如新興市場危機,倘鎊匯續跌,英倫銀行需要更快加息。該行稱,英倫銀行正面對極度困難的前景,英鎊下跌及政府舉債支持減息將刺激通脹,由於投資者憂慮英國債務不可持續,料英鎊仍有下行壓力。
長實集團(01113.HK)全日股價挫8.6%收48.2元,長和(00001.HK)股價走低5.8%,長江基建(01038.HK)及電能(00006.HK)股價各跌3%及2.7%。摩根大通指英國政府建議取消企業稅率上調,可能導致遞延所得稅負債撥備撥回(長建及電能於2020至2021年為此各計提32億及13億港元),估計此措施可以抵銷英鎊逾10%的貶值的影響(若英鎊貶值約10%,料會拖低長建及電能今年盈利均約5%)。該行認為近期英鎊匯價的消息面掩蓋了長建及電能的「順風」因素。
【跌股千一隻 濠賭股彈高】
港股今日市寬續弱,主板股票升跌比率為13比27(上日為10比30),下跌股份1,182隻(跌幅3.1%);恆指成份股今日32隻股份上升,下跌股份40隻,升跌比率為44比55(上日為19比75)。大市今日錄沽空202.5億元,佔可沽空股份成交額886.67億元的22.839%(上日為23.352%)。
濠賭股急彈,金沙中國(01928.HK)全日股價搶上15.7%收20.4元,銀娛(00027.HK)股價揚7.2%,澳博(00880.HK)彈11.6%。花旗指,恢復前往澳門的電子簽註和團體旅遊,為澳門復甦提供清晰的路線圖。該行與大多數投資者溝通後,預計到澳門的旅行限制將在明年年第一季度放寬,因此澳門特首指內地政府同意在10月底至11月初恢復往澳電子簽註和旅行團屬正面的驚喜,早於預期的寬鬆政策,顯示澳門經濟復甦得到內地政府的全力支持。
該行上調澳門2023年上半年賭收預測11%至610億澳門元,料澳門2023年賭收1,420億澳門元,於濠賭股首選銀河娛樂及金沙中國,銀娛目標價由56元上調至58.5元,維持「買入」評級;金沙中國目標價由25元升至26元,維持「買入」評級。
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