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申銀萬國期貨:四季度WTI油價大概率繼續向下 整體波動區間在65-85美元附近
格隆匯 09-26 10:54
格隆匯9月26日丨申銀萬國期貨點評原油下跌:在美元匯率增強打擊全球經濟的預期中,歐美原油期貨連續四周下跌,上週五WTI跌破80美元,回到年初水平。短期關注10月5日OPEC會議,在9月會議上OPEC減產十萬桶短暫提振了油價,這也是之前原油一直能穩定在80美元以上的主要原因。需求端隨着美聯儲持續強硬加息,全球經濟陷入衰退危機中,加之國內由於疫情因素需求下滑,全球減少的需求遠遠大於歐洲由於天然氣替代所增加的燃料油需求。四季度關注3個重點。美聯儲加息政策對經濟的影響;地緣衝突或突發天氣導致的產量大幅度減少;歐洲冬季天然氣替代的需求情況。考慮到目前的宏觀情況,四季度WTI油價大概率繼續向下,整體波動區間在65-85美元附近。
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