英鎊面臨“重大危機” 長和系股票重挫 長實跌近10%
格隆匯9月26日丨英鎊面臨“重大危機”,重押英國的長和系港股市場集體重挫。截至半日收盤,長實集團跌近10%,長和跌超5%。上週英國宣佈半世紀以來最大減税方案,還有消息稱,英國首相特拉斯還將在明年推出更多減税措施。中金稱,減税會增加財政赤字,加劇市場對英國“財政主導”和通脹風險的擔憂。歷史表明“財政主導”會削弱央行的信譽度,最終引發高通脹乃至惡性通脹。預計接下來市場將關注英國央行的反應,如果央行抗通脹意志不堅定,或將加劇市場擔憂,加大英鎊貶值壓力,英國資產價格也會進一步下跌。新加坡銀行首席經濟學家Mansoor Mohi-uddin表示,英鎊可能繼續下跌,因為投資者擔心英國債務正處於不可持續的上升道路上,並將英鎊稱為“英國比索”。這可能導致一種新興市場式的惡性循環,即通脹上升、收益率上升和經濟活動下降,導致政府不得不緊急削減支出,並迫使經濟陷入深度衰退。

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