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《大行報告》大和料短期Hibor今年底升至4.5% 為P按息進一步上調鋪路
大和發表研究報告指,美聯儲宣布加息後,匯豐銀行成為香港首家上調最優惠利率12.5個基點,至5.125%的銀行,隨後渣打、中銀香港(02388.HK)及東亞銀行(00023.HK)等亦跟隨。環球利率趨升的背景下,銀行的融資成本亦自6月以來錄得更大升幅,令利息支出亦提升,由於8月融資成本接近0.75%,與2018年9月上一次加息周期相似,認為加P按息是在所難免。 大和指,在2016至2019年的加息週期中,香港只有調升一次最優惠利率,於2018年9月27日加息12.5個基點,之後隨著美聯儲再次轉向寬鬆,最優惠利率於2019年11月1日下調12.5個基點,回到5%。該行認為,美聯儲這次更有決心控制通脹,亦不惜以經濟衰退為代價,因此今次加息周期將與上次不同,隨著美國加大加息力度,倫敦銀行同業拆借利率將加快上漲,香港銀行同業拆息(Hibor)亦將上漲,預計短期Hibor今年底將升至4.5%,到明年底升至4.7%,為最優惠利率進一步上調奠定基礎。
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