《即日市評》憂美進取加息引發衰退 恆指守萬八關 港銀加最優惠利率
美聯儲局如預期加息0.75釐,匯豐銀行中午公佈明日起上調港元最優惠利率12.5點子至5.125釐,予港元儲蓄存款戶口的利率亦調高12.4點子,港股今日向下。聯儲局利率點陣圖顯示,預計今年底聯邦基金利率中值爲4.4釐,美聯儲局主席鮑威爾表示致力將通脹降至2%的目標,強調過程中經濟將會面對痛苦,令市場擔心美國經濟衰退風險,美股道指及納指昨各跌1.7%及1.8%。執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率跌至3.519釐,美匯指數最新升至110.79,道指期貨最新升178點或0.6%,納指期貨最新升0.57%。摩通亞洲區貨幣指數跌0.16%報98.08,人民幣即期收跌275點報7.0810兌一美元,上證綜指全日跌8點或0.27%收3,108點,深證成指跌0.84%,滬深兩市成交額6,385億人民幣。
恆指今早低開363點,初段曾跌479點一度低見17,965點(創逾十年低位),其後跌幅曾收窄至249點見18,195點,全日跌296點或1.61%,收18,147點;國指跌71點或1.14%,收6,195點;恆生科技指數跌63點或1.7%,收3,673點。大市全日成交總額851.93億元,滬、深港通南下交易分別淨流入18.99億及23.36億元人民幣。
【美進取加息 港銀首加P】
金融及科網股造淡,港交所(00388.HK)及友邦(01299.HK)全日股價走低2.8%及2.4%,匯控(00005.HK)跌近3.6%收45.7元,渣打(02888.HK)跌1.2%收53.1元,渣打銀行(香港)宣佈由明日起最優惠貸款利率將上調0.125釐。中銀香港(02388.HK)跌0.7%收26.55元,中銀公佈自下週一(26日)將港元最優惠利率由年利率5釐調高至5.125釐,港元活期儲蓄存款利率由年利率0.001釐調整至0.125釐。
美聯儲局連續第三次加息0.75釐,聯邦基金利率目標範圍升至介乎3至3.25釐,摩根士丹利發表告表示,更重要的是聯儲局的「點陣圖」加息指引表明利率在明年達到4.6%的峯值,高於市場的預期。而美聯儲的經濟預測顯示,料美國明年的GDP增長預期顯着降低,僅爲1.2%,美失業率和核心通脹率高於6月份的預測。
大摩認爲美聯儲局加息「點陣圖」,對亞洲/新興市場股票影響是負面的,該行繼續預計市場將迅速朝着該行對MSCI新興市場及恆生指數的熊市目標邁進,而該行予恆指「熊市」目標預測17,000點。該行預計在幾周而不是幾個月後,市場在這些熊市目標附近的低谷。
【跌股千三隻 電動車股跌】
港股今日市寬續弱,主板股票升跌比率爲10比30(上日爲9比31),下跌股份1,309只(跌幅2.6%);恆指成份股今日11只股份上升,下跌股份62只,升跌比率爲15比85(上日爲14比85)。大市今日錄沽空170.19億元,佔可沽空股份成交額697.5億元的24.4%(上日爲25.664%)。
新能源汽車股造淡,比亞迪(01211.HK)跌1%收215元,小鵬汽車(09868.HK)股價走低11.6%,蔚來(09866.HK)下滑7.5%,理想汽車(02015.HK)走低4%。
富瑞發表報告,內地9月首半個月的新能源汽車品牌的新訂單量按月下降約10%至20%,主要是由於更嚴格的封鎖措施影響到消費者情緒、及部分客戶採取觀望態度。該行預期,9月新能源汽車批發量將按月增長5%至約70萬輛,遜於過去五年的按月增長中位數;9月銷售或遜預期。另外,特斯拉的保險補貼或會令大型新能源汽車品牌出現一輪降價。
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