美元直面挑戰！一旦美聯儲不夠“鷹派” 漲勢或將逆轉
如果美聯儲將其利率前景設定在低於交易員預期的水平，美元的漲勢就有逆轉的風險。另外，若美聯儲對GDP增長的預測大幅下調，也可能損及美元。
來源 | 華爾街見聞 作者 | 王眉
隔夜，美元指數重新漲回110關口上方，接近2002年6月以來的二十年高位，並基本收復9月7日以來的跌幅。
如果後半周維持漲勢，美元指數有望在六週裏第五週上漲。
但有媒體表示，如果美聯儲將其利率前景設定在低於交易員預期的水平，美元的漲勢就有逆轉的風險。
因美國通脹持續高企，市場不斷加大對美聯儲今晚會議的鷹派預期，除加息規模有近20%的可能性爲100個基點外，市場對點陣圖及終端利率（聯邦基金利率峯值）的預期也在大幅上升。
目前市場定價聯邦基金利率將於明年3月達到4.5%的峯值，並在2023年底前維持在4% - 4.25%的水平。德意志銀行甚至預測，利率將在明年一季度達到4.9%的峯值，接近5%。
相比之下，美聯儲官員在6月份對2022-2024年利率峯值的預測幾乎都低於4%。
華爾街見聞此前提及，匯豐銀行提醒投資者，今年以來美債收益率的大部分變動都發生在FOMC會議之前。鑑於目前的市場預期與美聯儲9月的指引相對一致（甚至更鷹），債券市場可能會在本次會議前後呈現“賣謠言，買事實”（sell the rumor, buy the fact）的交易模式，近期“避險”的交易模式可能發生反轉，美元短期內可能會走弱。
蘇格蘭皇家銀行（Natwest Markets）的新興市場外匯策略師Galvin Chia表示：
“如果美聯儲會後公佈的點陣圖比預期的更加鴿派，美元可能會有一定的拋售空間。”“市場將密切關注這方面的指引。”
隨着對經濟衰退的擔憂加劇，投資者還將關注美聯儲的GDP增長預測，若增長預測大幅下調，可能損及美元。
澳大利亞聯邦銀行駐悉尼的國際和可持續經濟負責人Joseph Capurso說：
“更大的反應可能來自他們將2023年美國GDP預測大幅下調至0.5%左右，共識預期是0.9%。”
Capurso表示，這“將表明美聯儲願意冒着經濟衰退的風險降低通脹率”。
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