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跌到極致是反彈?
uSMART盈立智投 09-20 21:41

要想了解最近投資者情緒惡化的速度有多快,看看職業基金經理的資金流動態就知道了。

根據標普全球市場情報(S&P Global Market Intelligence)的分析,在從8月中旬至9月7日的五週時間裏,只做多的機構投資者拋售了價值512億美元的美國股票,約爲今年前31周拋售規模的四分之一。

值得一提的是,這些數據不包括上週的數據,彼時意外超出預期的美國8月通脹數據引發了人們對美聯儲收緊貨幣政策力度超過預期的擔憂。媒體彙編的數據顯示,這種焦慮情緒已導致標普500指數在過去四周內下跌8.4%,而自疫情以來只有兩次四周累計跌幅超過這一數字。

儘管能源和公用事業板塊在2022年逆市上揚,但這並沒有必然轉化爲機構的資金流動。數據顯示,機構投資者拋售了11個行業板塊中以工業類股票爲首的10個,流向公用事業股票的資金則持平。

媒體彙編的數據顯示,剔除今年標普500指數表現最好的5個交易日之後,該指數2022年以來的跌幅將從19%擴大至30%。瑞銀全球財富管理首席投資官Mark Haefele表示,不斷擴大的跌勢開始創造買入機會。他建議投資者“不要退守場外”,尤其是考慮到通脹上漲對現金的拖累、以及在不錯過反彈的情況下重返市場的時機存在風險。

週一美股收盤,標普500指數收漲0.69%,報3899.89點,十分接近3900點這一關鍵點位。BTIG編制的數據顯示,這一點位是標普500指數過去三年成交量最大的水平,分析師Jonathan Krinsky認爲,如果該指數跌破這一點位,則可能觸及6月低點3666.77點。

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