《大行報告》中金:內地9月以來新房銷售按年跌幅仍維持三至四成 屬階段性承壓
中金髮表報告,指內地上週共49個城市披露了周度新屋銷售數據,新房銷售面積按周增長10%,考慮節假日影響按年跌幅收窄至跌35%(上上週跌40%),即9月前三週的周均新房銷售較8月下降5%,按年下降34%(對比8月跌32%)。
該行指上週內地300個城市住宅地成交建面與金額分別按年各下降51%和42%(上上週各跌79%和89%),溢價率爲3%,流拍率邊際下行至6%(上上週各爲0%和22%)。9月前三週累計成交建面與金額按年下降49%和43%(8月各跌20%和19%),平均溢價率與流拍率爲2%和13%(8月4%和20%)。
中金錶示,內地9月以來新房銷售受近期局地疫情反覆表現爲階段性承壓,按年跌幅仍維持在三至四成。向前看,該行預計支持購房需求和「保交樓、穩預期」的相關政策仍將進一步發力以提振預期、加速基本面指標修復,在這一過程中財務穩健、土儲優質、拿地積極的均好型房企受益較大,內房H股推銷華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)、綠城中國(03900.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)、美的置業(03990.HK)、中國海外宏洋(00081.HK)、建發國際(01908.HK),物管板塊看好中海物業(02669.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK);代建板塊看好綠城管理(09979.HK)。
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