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《大行報告》摩通:郵儲行(01658.HK)最受惠存息下調
摩通發表研究報告指出,內地六大國有限行及招商銀行(03968.HK)宣布下調活期和定期存款利率,該行預期其他股份制商業銀行或將於未來幾周效仿,相信對於銀行盈利有利;估計本輪下調存款利率,將為2023財年的銀行淨息差提高5.5個基點,盈利提升5.2%,將抵銷8月份宣布下調貸款市場報價利率(LPR)為淨息差及盈利所帶來的負面影響。 該行稱,在其覆蓋的銀行中,認為郵儲行(01658.HK)最受惠存息下調,因其存款佔負債的96%,較同業的72%高。而更重要的是存息下調意味著銀行正實施人行推出的存款利率市場化調整機制,可能導致市場對未來如下調LPR後銀行會跟減存息的憧憬。因此,有關舉措將穩定銀行的淨息差和盈利前景。 不過,摩通認為宏觀增長仍然疲弱,加上房地產市場壓力持續升溫,資產質素問題仍然存在,故不太可能對銀行進行持續重新評級。
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