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新能源汽車:高景氣度延續,上游和電池業績高增

本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信證券研究,作者:袁健聰 王喆 拜俊飛 李越 尹欣馳 李鷂 吳威辰 汪浩 滕冠興 柯邁 黃耀庭

2022H1和2022Q2行業維持高景氣度,在需求與供給匹配不足的結構性錯配下,逐步擺脱局部疫情、國際局勢等外部因素的擾動,整車產銷量穩健增長,旺盛的下游需求帶動鋰鈷資源、鋰電設備、電解液、正極材料等中上游產業全面成長,營收及利潤水平持續提升。隨着優質車型加速投放,經濟形勢回暖向好及多地政策、法規推動,我們判斷2022年下半年全球新能源汽車市場需求高企,高增長趨勢有望延續。從全球視野看,中國電動化供應鏈快速發展、最為完善,龍頭企業已供應海外,作為全球優質製造資產的價值凸顯。推薦具備全球競爭力的新能源汽車供應鏈以及細分賽道優質企業。

概覽:

新能源汽車產業鏈上市公司近期披露2022年中報,我們選取了中信新能源汽車指數(CIS05002)包含的61家上市公司作為分析的樣本,將其劃分14個子板塊,下游包括整車、充電樁;中游包括鋰電材料(正負極材料、隔膜、電解液、輔材)、特斯拉供應鏈、熱管理、電池、電機電控、電池回收;上游包括鈷鋰資源、鋰電設備。受益於優質車型的投放、消費刺激政策和長期向好的經濟環境,2022H1與2022Q2行業高景氣延續。下游旺盛需求助推動力電池裝機量穩健增長,走出局部疫情及國際局勢波動影響,2022Q1環比略有下滑後快速回升。2022H1產業鏈總體的營業收入和利潤同比均有增長,其中扣非歸母淨利潤大幅增長的板塊有上游資源(+515%)、電池回收(+288.9%)、儲能(+177.3%)、電解液(+157.5%)等。

優質車型點燃下游需求,2022年上半年產銷量快速增長。

2022年上半年優質車型持續投放,在消費促進政策和經濟向好趨勢的強力助推下,新能源汽車需求旺盛,2022H1和2022Q2國內新能源汽車銷量分別為260/135萬輛,同比分別+118.5%/+98.7%,整車企業盈利狀況改善,頭部盈利增速較高。乘用車繼續作為主要增長驅動力,商用車景氣度相對偏低,但產銷有所提升,處於觸底回暖中。特斯拉產銷增長明確,持續超預期;充電樁盈利能力待提升;儲能盈利高增;歐洲補貼政策及碳排放新規驅動銷量增長,2022H1同比+6%。預計下半年國內市場格局將持續改善,產品成為核心競爭力,技術領先、產品競爭力強、定位清晰的企業有望享受長期行業高增長紅利。

電池龍頭化格局顯著,電機電控業績穩步增長。

電池板塊營收與利潤保持高增長,板塊內企業增速存在較大分化,2022H1營收同比+129.3%,扣非歸母淨利潤同比+59.4%,毛利率因原材料漲價承壓,2022H1同比-4.9pcts,2022Q2同比-1.1pcts;龍頭寧德時代在產業鏈極具定價權,佔款能力強,收款速度快,2022H1行業利潤佔比超80%。受益於下游強勁需求,電機電控行業營收與利潤穩步增長,2022H1營收及扣非歸母淨利潤同比+31.5%/+14%,2022Q2營收及扣非歸母淨利潤同比+12%/+15%,原材料漲價導致毛利率短期略有下降,2022H1同比-3.3pcts,2022Q2同比-2.4pcts。

鋰電材料業績亮眼,鋰電設備景氣高增。

下游動力電池需求持續火爆,鋰價上漲並長期保持高位,助力上游資源企業業績高增,2022H1營收同比+49.2%,扣非歸母淨利潤同比+515%,毛利率中位數52.3%,同比+19.7pcts。受限於項目建設週期和產能爬坡用時,預計下半年全球鋰供應緊張局面難改,鋰價將延續高位運行態勢,業績天花板有望進一步打開。2022Q2鈷價因供應端產能釋放回落,鎳價在庫存低位和交易活躍度限制的影響下震盪下行,預計未來維持高位震盪走勢。鋰電設備持續受益鋰電擴產,盈利能力迅速提升,2022年進入業績兑現期,全年訂單有望維持景氣高增態勢。

風險因素:

新能源汽車銷量不達預期;終端價格競爭加劇;成本降幅不達預期;新能源汽車政策波動;技術進步不及預期;原材料價格波動。

投資策略:

上半年行業高景氣度延續,需求與供給匹配不足的結構性錯配持續,鋰鈷資源、鋰電設備、電解液、正極材料等中上游產業受益下游高景氣的旺盛需求營收及利潤高增,電池廠和整車廠利潤承壓,並進行一定程度的提價。隨着國內新車型加速投放、歐洲政策的持續推動和美國電動車政策預期持續向好,同時,疫情緩解之後生產和銷量端有望復甦,我們判斷下半年全球新能源汽車有望延續高增長。從全球視野看,中國電動化供應鏈快速發展、最為完善,龍頭企業已經供應海外,作為全球優質製造資產的價值凸顯。建議重點關注具備全球競爭力的新能源汽車供應鏈優質企業。

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