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《大行報告》中金:美團(03690.HK)本地生活領域競爭壁壘穩固 長期利潤池穩定
阿思達克 09-13 10:55
中金發表報告指,近期組織了美團(03690.HK)管理層的非交易性路演,該行料其第三季外賣單均利潤或將按季下降,主要由於騎手成本季節性提高;隨著疫情恢復,補貼率或將按季提高,但高質素增長策略下第三、四季補貼率或仍將按年降低。 報告補充,長遠公司仍將平衡增長與盈利,維持外賣2020至2025年25%的收入年複合增長率增速與一單1元的利潤指引不變,並希望通過拼好飯、團餐等集約配送模式替代低客單訂單,保持2025年外賣利潤池穩定。 中金指,針對抖音與餓了麼的合作,美團認為貨架模式相比短視頻或更能滿足用戶對外賣的高即時性消費需求,公司在用戶、商戶、和配送網絡端壁壘深厚,「抖餓」合作對其影響或有限。美團維持到店 2020至2025年25%的收入年複合增長率增速指引,其中付費商戶數量的增加與商戶ARPU的提升將各自貢獻約一半增速。 同時,美團維持閃購長期一天1,000萬單及利潤不低於外賣的目標指引,利潤提升驅動主要來自供給端品類的豐富推動客單價提升;廣告貨幣化率提升;補貼收窄。但公司預計達到該利潤目標的時點或將晚於外賣,主要由於閃購仍在高速增長中,並不急於變現。 中金維持對美團「跑贏行業」評級和盈利預測不變,目標價為279元。
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