瑞信:美國8月CPI料不足以改變美聯儲鷹派立場
格隆匯9月13日丨瑞信預計美國8月總體CPI月率下降0.2%,這將是兩年來首次下降,總體CPI年率可能連續第二個月放緩至7.9%。預計核心CPI月率將放緩至0.2%,年率將從5.9%略微上升到6.0%。我們預計核心商品價格的下降將推動大部分的放緩。我行預測略低於市場一致預期,但鑑於最近好於預期的ISM和就業數據,可能不足以改變美聯儲的鷹派態度。美聯儲官員對加息50個基點或75個基點持開放態度,而最近媒體報道指出,除非通脹大幅下行,否則加息75個基點的可能性更大。
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