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新股觀察|洪九果品(06689.HK)穩中有升,背後或有三大邏輯支撐

一段時間以來,港股新股市場幾度上演“破發潮”,甚至可以説屢見不鮮。2022年而言,根據市場統計,港股新股破發率接近80%,其中8月上市的4家企業最終錄得“一平、一漲、兩破發”。

並且,縱觀今年港股新股整體表現,低潮不僅在於上市首日。1-8月,港交所共有48只新股上市(剔除舊股、股權投資等),而實際上只有8家企業走出平穩態勢,實現累計上漲。

來源:格隆匯|勾股大數據;市場數據

最近,隨着洪九果品(06689.HK)的上市,TA們陣中再添一員,也使洪九果品成為新的焦點之一。同時,筆者認為,洪九果品不失為較好的探討範例,不妨具體析之。

整體上看,儘管當前市場情緒低迷,洪九果品股票穩中有升,交投平穩。9月5日,洪九果品在港交所掛牌上市,發售價為每股40港元(為招股價40-52港元的下限定價),盤中一度上漲3%,全天收平,跑贏恆生指數(-1.16%)。到上市第四日(9月8日),洪九果品一度漲8%,創上市新高,市值超200億港元,收報40.85港元。

來源:富途

這背後,在筆者看來,主要得益於三點:

其一,洪九果品質地優異,其處於高景氣的賽道,業績表現較好,並以“水果第一股”的身份成功登陸港交所。即其兼具成長性、稀缺性,這兩點也是新股的重要投資線索。

單就賽道來看,據弗若斯特沙利文數據,按零售額計,2021年中國水果市場規模已達12290億元,同時預計在2026年這一數據將達17752億元,期間年複合增長率為7.6%,可見“水果第一股”的想象空間之大。

並且,伴隨消費升級,國內消費者對高品質水果,尤其是榴蓮、車釐子等進口、品牌水果的需求日益激增。洪九果品則構建出榴蓮、火龍果、龍眼、葡萄、山竹、車釐子6大核心品類矩陣,以此形成了全面、差異化多品牌組合,提前鎖定高品質水果風口。

其二,洪九果品獲得機構投資者的青睞,從招股結果中可以看到這一點,直接奠定了其走勢平穩的基調。

國際發售項下,洪九果品已獲認購發售股份數目,相當於國際發售初步可供認購發售股份總數的1.96倍。並且,洪九果品引入了廣發全球、南方基金作為基石投資者,基石投資者認購的比例較高,達到36.41%。

通常,國際配售部分主要面向的是基金、機構投資者或者是專業投資者,基石投資者有6至12個月的禁售期,這樣的禁售期也表明對企業未來的看好,使得企業上市後表現大概率較為穩定。反之,則可能較易出現相應的股價波動。

其三,洪九果品選擇了更貼合當前市場環境的發行價格,適當“讓利”投資者,增強了投資吸引力。

這一點上,也是洪九果品具有長期主義的體現,“讓利”投資者能夠幫助企業樹立友好型的企業形象,為在資本市場持續發展打下更好的口碑。因此亦有理由預期,其未來有望保持平穩態勢,不妨抱以持續關注。

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