穆迪:基數效應或令下半年中國房地產合約銷售額跌幅收窄
評級機構穆迪表示,受買家信心及需求持續疲軟影響,中國全國住宅合約銷售額將繼續下滑,但由於2021年下半年以來基數較低,跌幅可能收窄。
穆迪分析師周易瑋表示,中國經濟增長前景的不確定性,以及對項目停工的擔憂將是未來6至12個月影響市場需求的主要因素,同時防疫措施對商業活動和銷售執行的影響也將削弱消費者信心,市場對樓價走弱的預期將令潛在買家推遲置業計劃。
該行預期,樓市銷售可能受到近期政策放鬆的支持,但銷售復甦幅度將取決於支持措施的規模和效果,估計未來12個月不會出現強勁復甦,預測至明年6月房地產銷售額於過去12個月均值將下降15%至20%,對比2022年7月跌幅為25.9%。
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