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《大行報告》摩通:飲食、保險和銀行對人幣貶值適應力強 行業首選蒙牛(02319.HK)、平安(02318.HK)及招行(03968.HK)
摩根大通發布選股策略研究報告,指出各地疫情反彈、經濟放緩及美元強勢的環境下,MSCI中國指數及創業板上周按周分別下挫3.2%及4.1%,當中投資者似乎最擔心兩岸緊張局勢及美國或對中國實施進一步限制措施。 該行指出,宏觀經濟增長放緩、通脹疲軟以及房地產市場持續整合等趨勢都值得關注,當局持續出台支持措施,房地產銷售正在企穩。摩通將中國今年全年GDP增長預測從3.2%下調至3%。 摩通指出,中國股市傾向於在人民幣兌美元升值時上漲,按指數劃分,創業板及MSCI 中國的敏感度高於滬綜指,而從行業來看,預期半導體、消費服務、汽車、材料和互聯網等,在人民幣兌美元顯著波動期間將跑贏大市或跌幅較小;而當人民幣兌美元貶值時,預期餐飲、保險和銀行業適應力強,表現更具韌性。 該行將蒙牛(02319.HK)、中國平安(02318.HK)及招商銀行(03968.HK)列為餐飲、保險和銀行業行業首選,表示看好中國股市在消化疫情及美元走強的影響後,相信至年底將出現反彈。
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