植耀輝: 不利消息頻現 港股考驗19,200點支持
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股上周五(2日)走勢再度波動,8月非農數據表現與市場預期相若,美股平開後亦大致向好,惟其後傳出俄羅斯未有計劃恢復北溪一號供氣,美股隨即轉跌,最終三大指數均下跌超過1%。全周計,道指及標普500指數累跌超過3%,納指跌幅則達到4.2%。
至於港股方面,上周表現亦欠佳,恆指累跌超過3.4%,成份股中只得4隻股份錄得升幅;科指跌幅亦達到3.7%。業績未見太大驚喜,加上傳出騰訊(00700.HK)或減持美團-W(03690.HK)消息,科技股表現曾受到拖累。不過內房沽壓沉重,電動車板塊亦有較多利淡消息,令恆指反彈乏力,最終恆指亦未能重上19,500點水平,收報19,452點。成份股中以騰訊表現最佳,但升幅亦僅得1.36%,其餘錄得升幅藍籌分別是金沙中國(01928.HK)、恆隆地產(00101.HK)及領展(00823.HK),升幅介乎0.24%至1.17%。至於內需及內房股繼續是表現最差藍籌,碧桂園(02007.HK)大跌17.5%,股價創至少五年新低,海底撈(06862.HK)亦跌近17%。值得一提的是比亞迪(01211.HK),受巴郡(BRK.A.US)減持消息拖累,股價一周大跌近14%。
由於整體市況依然未見起色,加上個股亦接連傳出負面消息,或會進一步利淡大市表現。另外內地疫情及中美關係依然是重點,同時本周內地亦將公布經濟數據,相信對港股又會有一定啟示。預期恆指或會進一步考驗19,200點支持。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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疫情影響恆指即市支持下移至19,189點
耀才研究部稱,上周五(2日)美股三大指數全線下跌逾1%,美國8月非農新增就業報31.5萬人,略高於市場預期的30萬人,不過失業率則意外地達到3.7%,高過預期及前值的3.5%,盡管聯儲9月加息0.75厘的機會率從70%回落至55%,仍然無助股市受到沽壓。展望本周,能源危機引發的通脹仍然是市場焦點,俄羅斯指通往歐洲的關鍵天然氣管道無法按計劃重啟,另外OPEC+今日(5日)舉行會議,料將討論調整產量問題。港股方面,四川成都的疫情封控持續,將繼續拖累出遊以及復甦板塊,投資者可先繼續持有防守性股份,例如公用股及資源股。
恆指技術走勢方面,指數RSI未能超越50水平,MACD開始出現熊訊號,由於上周的高位未能突破20,300點,仍屬向下尋底的格局,指數即市支持將位於8月24日低位19,189點。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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