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《大行報告》美銀引述專家指煤業9月下旬迎催化劑 料年底煤價高企
中資煤炭股今日抽上,兗礦能源(01171.HK)股價最新彈高8.9%報34.4元,神華(01088.HK)及中煤(01898.HK)股價各升4.4%及7%。美銀證券近日發表報告表示,與《中國煤炭資源網》分析師馮東斌進行討論,該行引述該專家預測對今年餘下時間的煤炭價格保持樂觀,估計現貨動力煤價格於今年年底高企,可維持在每噸1,100至1,300元人民幣水平,焦炭價格可維持在每噸2,000至2,400元水平。他預計今財年原煤產量將達到44億噸(對比去年為41億噸),進口量下降至2.55億噸(去年為3.21億噸)。展望明年年,馮東斌預計內地動力煤需求將按年下降1.5%至2%,而產量將小幅上升,因此料明年煤價應該會從當前水平下降。 隨著夏季的結束,內地短期電力需求可能會下降,但該行引述馮東斌認為從9月下旬開始行業會有積極的催化劑,因為疫情影響和中共「二十大」前的進行安全檢查導致供應中斷,第二是內地政府能源「安全穩定供應」政策將持續到明年3月,第三華北地區冬季補貨需求。 關於煤炭庫存,馮氏指出內地7月份的旺季煤炭庫存出現了驚人的上升趨勢(這在歷史上從未見過),這可能是由於政府對安全供應的要求以及至少15天的庫存。
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