雪佛龍財報超預期，股價卻調轉向下，能源股漲到頭了？
摘要：雪佛龍(CVX)股價從7月的低點顯著回升，併發布第二季度收益。雖然其表現輕鬆超過華爾街的普遍預期，但其買入勢頭自此停滯，這似乎形成了一個牛市陷阱。因此，我們重申對CVX的賣出評級，敦促投資者削減敞口並進行輪換。
雖然雪佛龍第二季度的業績依然強勁，但是增長速度不可持續。該公司下遊業務收入(佔總營收的76%)同比增長86%，高於第一季度的75%。然而與2021年初的峯值相比，其增長明顯放緩。此外，其關鍵的上遊業務的增長也明顯放緩，第二季度營收增長66%，高於第一季度的52%。儘管如此，由於雪佛龍面臨更艱難的競爭，這一數字也明顯低於21財年的高點。鑑於最近潛在市場的困境，我們認爲該公司可能會繼續面臨挑戰，以保持其增長節奏。
即使市場普遍樂觀認爲，雪佛龍的收入增長在23財年之前應該會放緩。這也可能會影響其運營槓桿，因爲雪佛龍調整後的利潤率預計也會下降。我們認爲如果基礎指標面臨壓力，該公司將越來越難以維持其買入上行。不過考慮到目前的供需動態，我們認爲該公司的基本模式在中短期內不太可能恢復到疫情前的水平。沙特阿拉伯最近發表了強硬言論，導致WTI原油價格最初出現上漲，但其勢頭仍持續低迷。然而8月份的漲幅已被消化，市場重新關注可能進一步削弱零售和工業需求的增長擔憂。
儘管俄羅斯威脅要對歐洲進行更大範圍的減產，但近期天然氣期貨價格飆升的勢頭仍在繼續停滯。歐洲的能源危機一直在惡化，爲應對即將到來的冬季而囤積天然氣，但這並不能推動天然氣期貨價格突破6、7月份的高點。我們認爲市場已經向投資者發出警告，基礎市場沒有必要進一步上漲。因此，投資者需要降低對雪佛龍的預期，以便從現在開始跑贏大盤。
此外，雪佛龍似乎正在經歷一個分發階段，因爲它建立了一個較低的高點在8月，低於6月的雙頂。這是對投資者一個重要危險信號，表明在目前的水平上，進一步的買盤上行可能會面臨賣家的強勁阻力。除非基礎市場表現出彈性，否則該公司不太可能在當前水平維持其中期看漲偏見。鑑於宏觀看法，我們認爲雪佛龍已準備好從這裏進一步回調，不排除回到7月低點的可能性。因此，我們重申對雪佛龍CVX的賣出評級。
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