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華泰證券料新東方在線(01797.HK)盈利能力可持續提升 予目標價31.04元
新東方在線(01797.HK)今日股價向上,盤中曾高見32.7元一度彈高8.1%,最新報32.45元升7.4%。華泰證券發表報告表示,考慮新東方在線旗下直播電商業務用戶粘性和轉化率不斷提升、供應鏈快速發展、商品品類逐步拓展、自營品佔比穩步提升,預計2023財年起電商業務將爲主要增長動力,同時大學業務有望隨疫情好轉及供給側競爭出清而恢復增長。該行預計新東方在線於2023財年至2025財年國際財務報告準則(IFRS)純利有望達7.54億、11.01億及14.46億人民幣。 該行表示,對新東方在線採用分部估值法,分別給予旗下大學教育業預測市盈率27.98倍估值、予直播電商業務預測2023年市盈率28倍作估值,予新東方在線目標價31.04元,維持「持有」評級。 華泰證券指。6月中上旬,新東方在線旗下「東方甄選」憑藉雙語講解商品知識的獨特帶貨形式爆火出圈,抓住了流量爆發的機遇,巧妙地將商品知識與人文情懷相結合,引發了觀衆廣泛共鳴,爆發期後,東方甄選繼續通過邀請文娛大咖做客直播間、舉辦地方專場直播等形式不斷豐富直播場景和內容,將自然流量持續轉化沉澱爲核心流量。在7至8月粉絲增速放緩的情況下,「東方甄選」抖音直播間日均總成交金額(GMV)依然穩定維持在2,000萬元人民幣以上,同時其帶貨轉化率(用戶瀏覽後購買商品的銷量佔總瀏覽量比例)實現了穩步提升,據數據顯示,截至8月28日,「東方甄選」抖音直播間最近90天、30天及7天的帶貨轉化率分別爲1.5%、1.85%及2.28%,該行認爲這表明高粘性的留存用戶逐漸取代新用戶,成爲GMV的主要貢獻者。 該行認爲相比同行業公司,「東方甄選」在盈利能力上具備以下獨特優勢,指「高傭金+低投流+靈活的主播激勵機制+低成本私域獲客」,料盈利能力有望持續提升。第一是與直播電商行業普遍的「坑位費+傭金」的收費形式不同,公司至今未收取坑位費,因而理論上擁有更強的傭金議價能力,且有利於與供應商建立長期合作關係,實現相對穩定的傭金收入。 第二是「東方甄選」未進行流量投放,當前粉絲團均由自然流量轉化而來,用戶粘性較強。管理層表示,短期內,僅抖音這一核心平臺仍有較大發展空間。第三是「東方甄選」並未按照業內常見做法對主播進行高額分成激勵,因此預計主播成本會低於以明星帶貨爲主的多頻道網路(MCN)機構。第四是隨着「東方甄選」品牌認知度提高,預計公司可更多通過私域流量實現較低成本的獲客。
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