《大行報告》瑞銀：內房股資產負債表收縮步伐過快 物管股應收賬款按半年升64%
阿思達克 09-02 12:17
瑞銀發表報告表示，內房股公布今年上半年業績報告表後，投資者均關注於相關企業的現金流多於盈利表現(平均按年跌34%)，指本港上市內房股所持現金平均按半年跌19%(民企內房所持現金平均按半年跌30%)，該行觀察了發展商上半年的資產負債表主要項目(現金、負債、合同負債和應付賬款)，認為相關股份的資產負債表收縮的步伐過快。
該行指喜愛國企背景的內房及物管股，多於民企背景的內房及物管股，並指該行的內房及物業管理股首選股包括華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外發展(00688.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)、保利物業服務(06049.HK) ，綠城管理控股(09979.HK)及貝殼－W(02423.HK)。
瑞銀從20項最大的內房發展商資產負債表進行分析及得出五個結論，第一是總負債按半年下降0.8%；第二是國有企業和民營內房發展商的總負債分別按半年各升3.8%及下降3.7%，因為國有企業開發商能夠籌集到借款；第三是民企開發商現金餘額按半年下降19%，若現金餘額下降過快，可能會引發大幅折價的股權配售。
第四是民企發展商應付賬款按半年下降9%，表明來自供應商的信貸條款減少；第五是上半年收入下降和合同負債上升表明，開發商正在推遲建設步伐以保留現金。另一方面，該行認為行業關鍵在於合同銷售，因屬開發商最大的現金流。然而，內地8月份首100名物業開發商的合同銷售仍然疲軟，按月持平(按年下降33%)。
至於內地物管股方面，瑞銀表示應收賬款上升，而管理利潤增速放緩或下降。由於開發商、政府和業主的現金回收率較低，物管股期內應收賬款按半年上升64%，快於收入增長。由於新屋銷售和開工大幅下降，合同建築面積增加增長放緩。
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