郭思治: 9月大市開局已見反覆
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,9月大市開局已反覆偏軟,恆指昨早市先低開193點至19,761點,其後再進一步跌至19,669點方漸見喘定並作技術性回升,但在薄弱的氣氛中,由於買盤不繼,故在動力不配下,大市只是稍升至19,839點已漸受規限,由於目前只是9月份之初旬,故大市之形態暫仍未現,但從技術上看,恆指似有機會先往下尋低位,需留意的是,一旦沽壓稍作主動,大市可能會於本月上旬先下試小圖上之小雙底,即恆指可能會下試8月24日之低位19,189點及5月10日低位19,178點之支持。
目前困擾市場之利淡因素頗多,首先,美國聯儲局在通脹高企下仍會大幅加息,且高息的周期會較長,情況對股市當會帶來較負面的影響,另外,內地經濟下行風險實不小,而爛尾樓事件仍有待解決,而較受關注的是騰訊(00700.HK)可能會減持美團-W(03690.HK),消息對美團已帶來頗明顯之壓力,至於股神巴菲特正逐步減持比亞迪(01211.HK),事件已令比亞迪股價急挫,且技術上亦已跌穿所有平均移動線,論形態,似乎已開始進入反覆欲試低位之弱態中。
在多項不明換因素困擾下,大市走勢將持續反覆,投資者目前最好暫抱觀望,盡量保留實力。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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