美股多頭應該面對現實了?
本週一,木頭姐的旗艦基金方舟創新ETF(ARKK),比特幣,Meme股以及科技板塊的下跌重挫了本季度上漲7萬億美元的風險資產。標普500指數下跌逾2%,創下6月中旬以來最嚴重的兩日暴跌,10年期美國國債的拋售推動收益率一個月來首次突破3%,波動率飆升,芝加哥期權交易所VIX指數逼近24,創三週以來最高水平。
美聯儲的激進加息是直接導火索,外界普遍預計鮑威爾將在幾天後重申美聯儲鷹派加息預期。在分析師開始建議投資者青睞現金之際,風險資產的回調令有關股市上漲將促使美聯儲採取更積極行動的擔憂略有降溫。GuideStone資管總裁兼首席投資官David Spika稱:“從6月中旬到7月底,良好的市場風險情緒促使投機資產猛烈增長,但這並不代表它有合理的價值,更多意味着資金在追逐趨勢。”
ARKK下跌
木頭姐的ARKK已連續五個交易日出現資金流出,包括過去12個交易日中的11個交易日。今年迄今爲止,除了6月份,這隻ETF每個月都有資金流入,儘管自2022年開始以來,它的市值已經累計下跌近一半,該基金於本週一大跌2.4%。
加密貨幣拋售
隨着投資者解除了對美聯儲加息幅度可能低於預期的押注,數字資產也遭遇重挫。比特幣上週突破了2.5萬美元大關,但此後已跌向2.1萬美元。與此同時,涵蓋市值排名前100的加密貨幣指數在上週下跌近12%之後,於本週一下跌了3.1%。
Meme股沒落
3B家居(BBBY.US)股價下跌16%,此前有報道稱,一些供應商在該公司拖欠貨款後,開始限制或停止發貨。這種悲觀情緒也波及了其他meme股,其中GameStop(GME.US)於本週一下跌5.5%,AMC院線(AMC.US)下跌6.4%。
科技股遭重創
高盛一籃子非盈利科技公司股票於週一下跌2.6%,目前處於8月2日以來的最低水平。當投資者預計利率上升和通脹會侵蝕未來收益時,那些基於未來利潤預期而估值極高的科技公司股價就會面臨下跌風險。
IPO放緩
美聯儲激進的貨幣政策對新上市公司的打擊尤爲嚴重。Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO)上週下跌8.9%,創5月份以來最大單週跌幅。自今年年初以來,該基金已經累計下跌了約44%。
投機性資產的暴跌可能證明空頭的說法是正確的,他們六週來一直警告稱,股市上漲不可能持續下去,並一直在強調歐洲能源價格飆升以及美聯儲可能過於激進的收緊政策。
全球債券市場上週出現拋售,歐洲能源和電力價格持續飆升,市場擔心這些因素會在整個冬季推動通脹繼續高漲。Jonestrading首席市場策略師Michael O’rourke稱,“儘管市場處於避險環境,但對於通脹的擔憂正在推動債券拋售並推高收益率。因此,長期成長型股票面臨較大壓力。”
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