激进加息担忧浮现吓退美股，降息利好刺激内房物管走高
Jaco 袁永傑/uSMART投資顧問總監畢業於諾桑比亞大學，主修國際商業管理擁有10年港股、美股研究及操作經驗，擅長利用各種分析方式和宏觀經濟環境分析對股票及市場作出預測
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上週五美國聯儲局表明將繼續維持鷹派立場壓抑通脹，美股市上週五陷入拋售恐慌，其中納指跌260.13點，收報12705點，是7月11日來最大跌幅、標普500跌55.26點，收4228點，爲6月28日以來最差、道指亦跌292.3點，收報33706點，爲8月2日以來最差。美聯儲兩位官員分別發表強烈鷹派言論: 美國裏士滿聯儲銀行總裁巴爾金錶明支持提前加息，即使加息會導致美國經濟衰退亦必須抑制通脹、美國聖路易斯聯儲主席布拉德認爲，聯儲局不應拖延加息進程，直言現在判斷通脹飆升勢頭已經見頂還言之尚早，他希望聯儲局在年底前將利率提高3.75%至4%。另一方面，俄羅斯國營天然氣公司Gazprom表示連接歐洲的北溪一號管道天然氣輸送將於本月底暫停3天，原因是天然氣渦輪機需維修，這消息導致荷蘭天然氣期貨週五創收市歷史新高，消息進一步令市場擔心能源價格上升而令通脹未能受控。總括而言，美股長期趨勢仍然向下，目前美股反彈力量已經接近尾聲，再上升空間有限，而在下週五Jackson Hole全球央行年會前相信市場仍以反覆爲主。
02港股今天繼承上週五美股走勢走弱，開盤低開200點，市場壞消息主導爲主，恆生成份股中有三家公司公佈的業均令市場失望，包括: 小米第二季純利約13.86億元，按年跌83.2%，遜預期的14.98億元，公司表示海外市場需求降低，尤其是歐洲，物聯網收入未來幾季將見疲弱，而在印度面對的訴訟亦面對不確定性；招商銀行業績雖然略好過預期，不過市場仍擔憂公司在房地產業的不良貸款及貸款和墊款信用減值上升；新奧能源今天業績公佈後暴跌14.25%，主因是業績顯示公司面對天然氣價飆升，而未能將上升的成本轉到消費者身上，令公司盈利增長無以爲繼，觸發今天大跌。不過內地下調LDR，1年期LPR爲3.65%，5年期以上LPR爲4.3%對內地房地產市場是正面利好的消息，市場憧憬政府有更多利好房地產消息而觸發內房股今天走強。恆指跌116點，收報19656點，成交830.9億元。總括而言，港股短線仍有反彈空間，唯大方向仍然是向下，不過接下來是MSCI和恆指成份股調整，按照最近記錄，都是最後階段會炒高讓被動基金接盤，所以短線走勢不會太差。
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