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《大行報告》瑞信:人行降LPR利率旨在鼓勵長期投資及購房 靜態評估令內銀盈利降逾2%至12%
瑞信發表報告表示,由於內地7月份經濟數據欠佳,人民銀行公布將內地一年期及五年期以上款市場報價利率(LPR)各下調5個及15個基點,指降低LPR已被市場廣泛預期,因於今次LPR是不對稱性降息,假設存款利率沒有進一步變動,該行的靜態分析顯示,其所覆蓋的內銀全年盈利可能下降2.8%至12.9%,料淨息差可能會收窄3.3至8.7個基點。 該行指,基於將內地一年期及五年期以上LPR各下調5個及15個基點,按其敏感度分析,料將拖低工行(01398.HK)、建行(00939.HK)、農行(01288.HK)、中行(03988.HK)、招行(03968.HK)盈利預測各8.2%、8%、9.5%、8.7%及4.5%,料拖低郵儲行(01658.HK)盈利預測12.9%。 瑞信表示,如果內地降息可以幫助經濟增長,內銀股亦可能會受益,指需求對目前行業至關重要,並認為若單靠降息可能不夠有效,指當局需要多方面的協調政策努力來增加增長動力。而該行認為今次降息旨在鼓勵長期投資和購房需求。
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