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《大行報告》野村:內地推政策性銀行專項借款支持逾期項目交付 料中央需初始投入最少二千億至三千億人幣方有效
野村發表研究報告指,住建部、財政部聯合中國人民銀行等於上周宣布,將運用更多政策工具,以「保交樓、穩民生」為原則提供政策性銀行專項借款,支持已售逾期難交付住宅項目建設交付。 野村指,此前一直預期中央政府將介入並提供流動性支持,以化解樓市與金融體系相關的風險,以及買家拒付房貸所引發的社會動盪,認為此紓困措施是過去近月以來,首個具重大正面意義的進展,將較放寬長三角主要城市首付要求,以及向個別民企提供信用擔保效果來得更為直接。 但該行指出,目前仍未清楚相關資金規模,預計初期投入至少要達到2,000億至3,000億元人民幣,又指雖然對當局做法持樂觀態度,但仍對該行業疲弱的基本面持悲觀看法,重申市場份額萎縮將是大多數民營房企面臨的最大風險。而在需求端,則預期失業率上升及經濟增長放緩,潛在買家收入水平下降,將為內房行業銷售勢頭構成持續下行壓力。
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