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《大行報告》中金:內地高溫已持續64天自1961年以來持續時間最長 但料限電對經濟影響有限
中金發表報告表示,近期內地多地發布限電通知,上市公司公告限產家數也有所上升,或對工業生產造成一定擾動。但本輪限電更多是極端高溫少雨天氣下的季節性、臨時性、區域性措施,且集中於四川等依賴水電的省份。政策著力保障煤炭和電力供應、不允許出現拉閘限電。隨著氣溫的回落,該行預計本輪限電對於工業生產的整體影響有限,遠小於去年同期。 該行指,本輪限電是極端高溫少雨天氣下的季節性、臨時性、區域性措施。根據國家氣候中心監測,截至8月15日,此次高溫事件已經持續64天,為1961年以來持續時間最長(超過2013年的62天)。中國氣象局8月新聞發布會表示,7月全國平均降水量96.6毫米,較常年同期偏少20.6%,為1961年以來歷史同期第二少;西藏、四川、雲南均為歷史同期最少。 該行續稱,高溫少雨天氣一方面增加了用電需求,另一方面降低了水電的供應,7月水力發電量按年增速由6月的29%降至2.4%,8月17日三峽水電站水位和流量均處於歷史同期低位。往年夏季用電高峰時各地也會采取限電措施優先保障居民用電,而近期極端高溫少雨天氣加劇了短期的用電缺口。這對於依賴水電的四川省影響較大,2020 年四川省發電量中水電佔比85%,高於全國的17%。因此,雖然四川省電廠日耗煤量處於歷史同期最高水平,且可用天數也較高,但難以彌補水電的缺口。 中金表示,政策保障疊加氣溫回落,認為內地本輪限電影響有限。從去年四季度至今,政策著力保障能源供應,例如今年5月11日,國務院常務會議要求保障煤炭電力供應穩定,決不允許出現拉閘限電。從煤炭供應來看,25省供煤量處於歷史同期最高水平。隨著未來氣溫的回落,四川等地的電力供應缺口或將有所緩解,四川省的限電通知持續時間也僅為6天,受到限電影響的工業企業也能通過趕工的方式彌補前期影響。
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